What a 10-for-10 hit rate does and doesn't tell you

On a busy NBA night, more than 100 players can have cleared some line in every one of their last 10 games. That sounds like a list of sure things. It isn't, and understanding why makes 10/10 hit rates far more useful.

What 10 for 10 means

A 10/10 hit rate means the player went over that exact line in each of his last 10 games. On the morning of Oct 28, 2026, for example, Kawhi Leonard had cleared 25+ points plus rebounds in all of his last 10 games, and in all of his last 5, while averaging 30.1 over those 10.

That's a real pattern. It tells you the line has been comfortably below what he's been producing.

What it doesn't mean

It doesn't mean he clears it tonight. Ten games is a small sample. A player who truly clears a line 80% of the time will still put together 10 straight successes about 11% of the time (0.8 to the 10th power is about 0.107). Across a slate with hundreds of players and lines, plenty of 10/10 streaks come from players who are good, not perfect.

That's regression to the mean: unusually strong streaks tend to cool toward the player's true level. Our piece on recency bias covers why recent results feel more certain than they are.

Low lines make 10/10 easy

A 10/10 on a line far below a player's average isn't saying much. A center who averages 10 rebounds clearing 3+ rebounds ten times in a row is expected. A scorer clearing a line close to his average ten times in a row is more interesting.

So the most useful 10/10 is the one where the line sits near his average. That's why DARIMARKET's 10/10 list shows each player's line closest to his average, not his lowest line.

Four questions before you trust a 10/10

• How close is the line to his average? The closer it is, the more the streak means.
• How much room did he leave lately? In a 10/10 his last 5 are also 5 for 5, so look at the margin. Clearing a line by one point every night is thinner than clearing it by eight.
• Did his role change? A new starter, an injury to a teammate or a minutes limit can break a streak overnight.
• Who's he playing? A strong defensive matchup is the most common streak-breaker.

Where to find tonight's 10/10s

Signed-in DARIMARKET members see a "Tonight's 10/10 hit rates" section on the board, separate from the graded picks. It lists every player who cleared a line in all of his last 10 games, in games that haven't started, grouped by sport. Anyone can see every 9/10 and 10/10 line on today's hit-rate board.

Use it as a research list: a shortlist of patterns worth a closer look, not a list of bets.

The bottom line

A 10/10 hit rate is a strong pattern on a small sample. Respect it, check the line against his average and the matchup, and remember that every streak ends eventually.

21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-MY-RESET.