Patriots vs Bills Player Prop Results: Who Cleared Their Hit Rates (Oct 4)
Published · Updated · NFL
This page is a post-game player prop hit-rate recap from DARIMARKET, a free sports research app for people who bet player props on FanDuel and DraftKings. It compares each key player's final stat line with what their last 10 games pointed to before the game.
Final: New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Final).
Who cleared their player props in Patriots vs Bills?
Final on Oct 4, 2026: Patriots 29, Bills 26. Cleared the line their last 10 pointed to: Drake Maye (175+ pass yds: 269), Drake Maye (10+ rush yds: 54), Rhamondre Stevenson (40+ rush yds: 47), Rhamondre Stevenson (2+ receptions: 3), Mack Hollins (30+ rec yds: 53), Mack Hollins (2+ receptions: 3). Fell short: Josh Allen (20+ rush yds: 4), Dalton Kincaid (30+ rec yds: 7), Dalton Kincaid (2+ receptions: 1).
Game script
Patriots beat Bills 29-26, a 3-point margin. A one-score game, so both offenses ran their normal script to the end.
New England Patriots player prop results
| Player | Line (last 10 before) | Pre-game | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB | 175+ pass ydsPassing yards, last-10 avg 224 | 9 of 10 | 269 | Held |
| Drake Maye | 10+ rush ydsRushing yards, last-10 avg 34.8 | 10 of 10 | 54 | Held |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 40+ rush ydsRushing yards, last-10 avg 56.2 | 8 of 10 | 47 | Held |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2+ receptionsReceptions, last-10 avg 3 | 8 of 10 | 3 | Held |
| Mack HollinsWR | 30+ rec ydsReceiving yards, last-10 avg 51.2 | 8 of 10 | 53 | Held |
| Mack Hollins | 2+ receptionsReceptions, last-10 avg 3.8 | 10 of 10 | 3 | Held |
| Romeo DoubsWR | 20+ rec ydsReceiving yards, last-10 avg 49.4 | 8 of 10 | 58 | Held |
| Romeo Doubs | 2+ receptionsReceptions, last-10 avg 3 | 8 of 10 | 6 | Held |
| Hunter HenryTE | 2+ receptionsReceptions, last-10 avg 3 | 8 of 10 | 5 | Held |
Buffalo Bills player prop results
| Player | Line (last 10 before) | Pre-game | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 175+ pass ydsPassing yards, last-10 avg 217.8 | 8 of 10 | 253 | Held |
| Josh Allen | 20+ rush ydsRushing yards, last-10 avg 38.3 | 8 of 10 | 4 | Missed |
| James Cook IIIRB | 50+ rush ydsRushing yards, last-10 avg 90.2 | 8 of 10 | 75 | Held |
| James Cook III | 1+ receptionsReceptions, last-10 avg 1.4 | 8 of 10 | 2 | Held |
| Dalton KincaidTE | 30+ rec ydsReceiving yards, last-10 avg 53.4 | 8 of 10 | 7 | Missed |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2+ receptionsReceptions, last-10 avg 3.5 | 9 of 10 | 1 | Missed |
| Khalil ShakirWR | 2+ receptionsReceptions, last-10 avg 4.5 | 8 of 10 | 7 | Held |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2+ receptionsReceptions, last-10 avg 2.4 | 9 of 10 | 2 | Held |
Player by player
Drake Maye finished with 269 passing yards, clearing 175+ pass yds. That hit rate held. Drake Maye finished with 54 rushing yards, clearing 10+ rush yds. That hit rate held. Before this game, Drake Maye's last 10 showed 175+ pass yds in 9 of 10, 10+ rush yds in 10 of 10.
Rhamondre Stevenson finished with 47 rushing yards, clearing 40+ rush yds. That hit rate held. Rhamondre Stevenson finished with 3 receptions, clearing 2+ receptions. That hit rate held. Before this game, Rhamondre Stevenson's last 10 showed 40+ rush yds in 8 of 10, 2+ receptions in 8 of 10.
Mack Hollins finished with 53 receiving yards, clearing 30+ rec yds. That hit rate held. Mack Hollins finished with 3 receptions, clearing 2+ receptions. That hit rate held. Before this game, Mack Hollins's last 10 showed 30+ rec yds in 8 of 10, 2+ receptions in 10 of 10.
Romeo Doubs finished with 58 receiving yards, clearing 20+ rec yds. That hit rate held. Romeo Doubs finished with 6 receptions, clearing 2+ receptions. That hit rate held. Before this game, Romeo Doubs's last 10 showed 20+ rec yds in 8 of 10, 2+ receptions in 8 of 10.
Hunter Henry finished with 5 receptions, clearing 2+ receptions. That hit rate held. Before this game, Hunter Henry's last 10 showed 2+ receptions in 8 of 10.
Josh Allen finished with 253 passing yards, clearing 175+ pass yds. That hit rate held. Josh Allen finished with 4 rushing yards, 16 short of 20+ rush yds. That hit rate missed this time. Before this game, Josh Allen's last 10 showed 175+ pass yds in 8 of 10, 20+ rush yds in 8 of 10.
James Cook III finished with 75 rushing yards, clearing 50+ rush yds. That hit rate held. James Cook III finished with 2 receptions, clearing 1+ receptions. That hit rate held. Before this game, James Cook III's last 10 showed 50+ rush yds in 8 of 10, 1+ receptions in 8 of 10.
Dalton Kincaid finished with 7 receiving yards, 23 short of 30+ rec yds. That hit rate missed this time. Dalton Kincaid finished with 1 receptions, 1 short of 2+ receptions. That hit rate missed this time. Before this game, Dalton Kincaid's last 10 showed 30+ rec yds in 8 of 10, 2+ receptions in 9 of 10.
Khalil Shakir finished with 7 receptions, clearing 2+ receptions. That hit rate held. Before this game, Khalil Shakir's last 10 showed 2+ receptions in 8 of 10.
Ty Johnson finished with 2 receptions, clearing 2+ receptions. That hit rate held. Before this game, Ty Johnson's last 10 showed 2+ receptions in 9 of 10.
What's next
What was the final score of Patriots vs Bills on Oct 4, 2026?
New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (Final). Patriots beat Bills 29-26, a 3-point margin. A one-score game, so both offenses ran their normal script to the end.
What does "the line their last 10 pointed to" mean?
For each player and stat, it is the highest line the player had cleared in at least 8 of their last 10 games before this one (80% of their games when fewer than 10 were on file). It is a research benchmark from past results, not a sportsbook line or a prediction.
More NFL player prop results
Pre-game numbers are each player's last 10 games on file before this game; actual stats are from the final box score. Research and commentary only, not betting advice. 21+.
Hit rates show what already happened, not what will. Nothing here is a guarantee. Research only; DARIMARKET is not a sportsbook. Always check the live line at your book. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET.