How to use hit rates to pick parlay legs
How do you use hit rates to build a parlay?
Start each leg from a line the player has cleared often and recently: 8 or more of the last 10, and still strong over the last 20. Check the sample is real games in the same role, then keep the ticket short, because even strong legs multiply down. As of Oct 28, 2026, the strongest recent lines on the upcoming slate include Ryan Leonard 2+ Shots on Goal (10 of 10) and Amen Thompson 15+ Points (10 of 10). A hit rate shows what already happened, not what will.
What a hit rate tells you
A hit rate is how often a player cleared a line in their recent games: 8 of 10 means they got there in eight of the last ten. On DARIMARKET's free hit-rate pages, the safe line is the highest line cleared in at least 8 of the last 10.
Four checks before a line becomes a leg
- Sample. Five games is thin. Look at the last 10 and the last 20 together; a line that holds up over both is steadier than a short streak.
- Role. A new starter, a returning teammate or a minutes cap changes what the old games mean.
- Opponent and setting. A tough defense, a big spread (blowouts cut minutes) or weather can move a line that the raw rate doesn't see.
- Price. A line cleared 9 times in 10 is often priced like it. A strong hit rate doesn't make every price worth it.
Why 9 of 10 is not 90%
Ten games is a small sample, and the next game isn't one of the last ten. Treat a hit rate as a starting point, then multiply honestly: two legs at a true 85% hit together about 72% of the time, three about 61%.
Strong recent lines on the upcoming slate
As of Oct 28, 2026, from the free hit-rate pages:
- Ryan Leonard (NHL) 2+ Shots on Goal: cleared in 10 of the last 10, next vs PHI
- Amen Thompson (NBA) 15+ Points: cleared in 10 of the last 10, next at MIL
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt (NFL) 8+ Rush Attempts: cleared in 9 of the last 10, next vs PHI
- Anthony Colandrea (CFB) 15+ Completions: cleared in 10 of the last 10, next vs WASH
- Carson Clark (CFB) 5+ Receptions: cleared in 8 of the last 8, next vs UNM
- Jalen Johnson (NBA) 30+ Pts + Reb + Ast: cleared in 8 of the last 10, next vs MIA