Jets without Hellebuyck: what the numbers say about Stuart Skinner

For a decade, the first question about the Winnipeg Jets never had to be asked. Who's in net? Connor Hellebuyck. Three Vezina Trophies, a Hart Trophy in 2025, an Olympic gold medal with Team USA in 2026.

Tonight the Jets open their season at Canada Life Centre against the Boston Bruins, and that answer is gone. Hellebuyck confirmed on Aug. 27 that he had asked for a trade. When he didn't show up for training camp, the Jets suspended him. The net belongs to Stuart Skinner, a 27-year-old Winnipeg signed on July 1 to a two-year, $7.5 million deal.

So here's the question we wanted answered with numbers instead of reputation: how much goaltending did Winnipeg actually lose?

Number 1: .895 vs .888

Start with last season, because that's the goalie the Jets would be replacing today.

Hellebuyck posted the worst save percentage of his career in 2025-26. His ESPN line: 23-23-11, a 2.86 GAA and a .895 save percentage. TSN noted it was the first time he had ever finished below .900. He had zero shutouts after posting eight the year before.

Skinner's 2025-26 was split between two teams. He started 23 games for Edmonton (.891) before a December trade to Pittsburgh, where he started 27 more (.885). Combined: 50 starts, a 2.92 GAA and a .888 save percentage.

That's a gap of seven thousandths. Hellebuyck faced 1,547 shots last season. Seven thousandths of 1,547 is about 11 goals over a full season of work. Real, but not a cliff.

Number 2: .925, the season that sets the bar

Now the other side. One year earlier, Hellebuyck was the best player in the league. He went 47-12-3 with a .925 save percentage and won the Hart, the Vezina and the Jennings, and Winnipeg won the Presidents' Trophy.

Run the same math in reverse. If Hellebuyck had saved .925 of the 1,547 shots he saw last season, he would have allowed about 116 goals. He allowed 162. That's roughly 46 goals of difference between his MVP form and his down year, and it helps explain how the Jets went from the best record in the league to 35-35-12 and out of the playoffs. TSN pointed out they became just the fifth team in NHL history to win the Presidents' Trophy and miss the playoffs the next season.

So the honest read is this: Skinner is close to last year's Hellebuyck. He is nowhere near the 2024-25 version. Whether Winnipeg lost a lot or a little depends on which Hellebuyck you think was coming back.

Number 3: the trend line

Skinner's career numbers look steady. He has started 218 regular-season games with a 121-71-23 record, a 2.77 GAA and a .902 save percentage. The Canadian Press called him "more than serviceable," and he brings real playoff experience, including back-to-back trips to the Stanley Cup Final with Edmonton in 2024 and 2025.

The year-by-year line is the part to watch. Per ESPN, his save percentage has dropped three seasons in a row: .914 in 2022-23, .905, .896, then .888 last season. That's the number Winnipeg needs to turn around.

There's one early data point in his favor. In his first preseason game for the Jets, he stopped 31 of 32 shots in a 3-1 win over Colorado, and the home crowd chanted his name.

Number 4: 59 games in an 84-game season

The bigger gap may not be quality. It's volume.

Hellebuyck routinely played more than 60 games when healthy and has logged more minutes and saves than any goalie since his 2015 debut, according to The Canadian Press. Skinner's career high is 59 games, in 2023-24. His next-busiest season was 51.

The league now plays 84 games under the new collective bargaining agreement. If Skinner matches his career high, someone else still plays about 25. Behind him, the Jets have Thomas Milic, Domenic DiVincentiis, Isaac Poulter and Alex Worthington in the system, none of them established NHL starters. NHL.com put it simply: it will take more than one player to cover the absence.

Skinner says he's ready for it. "I can definitely take on a high load if that's what's needed," he told The Canadian Press.

The other side of tonight

Boston arrives with a win already banked. Jeremy Swayman stopped all 24 shots in a 3-0 win over the Rangers on Tuesday, a game that stayed scoreless until Boston scored three times in the final four minutes, the last into an empty net.

Winnipeg's case for winning games while Skinner settles in runs through its scorers. Mark Scheifele had 36 goals and 103 points last season and Kyle Connor had 39 goals and 92 points, per NHL.com. The Jets were one of three teams with two players with at least 35 goals and 90 points.

As for Hellebuyck, the situation is unresolved. He has five seasons left on a contract carrying an $8.5 million cap hit, and general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has said the door remains open for him to return. Until something changes, the numbers above are the ones that matter.

What it means on the board

• Goaltending is the biggest input in hockey totals. With a goalie who saved .888 last season in net instead of the .925 version of Hellebuyck, Jets games deserve a fresh look on goal totals rather than a carryover from his MVP year.
• Saves props start with shot volume. Hellebuyck faced about 27 shots a game last season; Skinner faced about 25 a game across two teams. How Winnipeg defends in front of him will tell us which number fits.
• Points props for Winnipeg's and Boston's top scorers are the kind of market a goalie change shows up in, on both sides of the ice. Today's board has Bruins-Jets angles on the total and on top-line points.
• Early-season samples are small. One great or bad night from Skinner shouldn't swing a read; the three-season slide and his workload limit matter more.

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21+. Research and commentary, not betting advice.