DARIMARKET
NBA · Game recap · Tue, Oct 27

Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Recap: Portland Wins Late as Five Plays Cash

Final · Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers
Trail Blazers 136, Lakers 129
Board plays on this game
5 of 7 hit. We post the misses too.

Portland won 136-129 in Los Angeles after trailing for most of the night. The Lakers led for 68 percent of the game and went into the fourth quarter up 103-102, but the Trail Blazers won the final period 34-26. Jrue Holiday's three with 4:16 left gave Portland a 121-120 lead, Damian Lillard's three at 3:38 and a free throw seconds later put them ahead for good, and his step-back three with 43.1 seconds left made it 135-129. Luka Doncic scored 41 for the Lakers in a losing effort. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Trail Blazers +5.5 (-156 at FanDuel): CASHED

  • Our read: Portland had covered +5.5 in 4 of its last 5 and 8 of its last 10, and the Lakers were without Adou Thiero and Cameron Carr.
  • What happened: The Blazers did not need the points. They won outright by 7, which put this 12.5 points clear of the line.
  • Worth watching: Portland shot 46-of-78 and hit 18 threes. When this group is making shots, plus points against a short-handed favorite is an angle we will keep checking.

ALT: Robert Williams III 6+ rebounds (-160 at DraftKings): CASHED

  • Our read: Williams had cleared 6+ rebounds in 10 of his last 10 and 18 of his last 20. At -160 the price implied 62 percent against about 89 percent from recent games.
  • What happened: He grabbed 10 rebounds in 21 minutes off the bench and added 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting, including an alley-oop dunk from Deni Avdija in the fourth.
  • Worth watching: He hit the number with plenty of room in limited minutes. As long as his role holds, his rebound line is one of the steadier ones on this roster.

ALT: Jrue Holiday 4+ rebounds (+108 at DraftKings): CASHED

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  • Our read: Holiday had cleared 4+ rebounds in 8 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20, and plus money implied only 48 percent.
  • What happened: He finished with exactly 4 in 30 minutes. This one cashed on the number.

ALT: Jrue Holiday 20+ points + rebounds + assists (+146 at DraftKings): CASHED

  • Our read: He had cleared 20+ PRA in 8 of his last 10 and 16 of his last 20. At +146 the price implied 41 percent against about 76 percent from recent games.
  • What happened: Holiday scored 22 on 8-of-12 shooting and added 4 rebounds and 3 assists for 29, 9.5 over the line. His three at 4:16 of the fourth flipped the lead to 121-120, and he hit a free throw with 18.3 seconds left for the game's final point.
  • Worth watching: Plus-money combo lines on a bench scorer with real minutes are worth a look. His scoring did most of the work here.

Ziaire Williams 9+ points (+101 at DraftKings): CASHED

  • Our read: Williams had scored 9+ in 9 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20. At +101 the price implied 50 percent against about 76 percent from recent games.
  • What happened: He scored 11 on 4-of-5 shooting in 29 minutes. He hit two threes in the fourth quarter, both assisted by Austin Reaves, and the second one cut Portland's lead to 128-127.
  • Worth watching: He did it on just 5 shots. Efficient nights like this one make a modest points line playable, but his shot volume is the number to check first.

How the game played out

Doncic finished with 41 points, 9 assists and 11-of-13 at the line, and Reaves added 26. Portland had the better closing stretch: after Doncic's three made it 125-124, Avdija answered from 28 feet, and after Ziaire Williams hit back, Ja Morant made two straight jumpers. Avdija finished with 23 points and 9 assists, and Lillard scored 21.

Trends to watch

  • Portland took 41 free throws and made 26. A team getting to the line that often gives its team total and plus-points lines extra room.
  • Robert Williams III had 10 rebounds in 21 minutes. Watch his minutes; his rebound line is worth a look whenever they hold.
  • Holiday led the Portland bench in scoring. His points and combo lines stay on our radar while he plays 30 minutes.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on these markets, see point spread and alt line, or get more at /nba.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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