DARIMARKET
WNBA · Game recap · Wed, Oct 7

Liberty vs. Dream Recap: Stewart's 35 and Atlanta's OT Win Cash

Final · New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream
Dream 101, Liberty 98
Board plays on this game
10 of 11 hit. We post the misses too.

The Dream beat the Liberty 101-98 in overtime to take a 2-0 series lead. It was close the whole way: 17 lead changes, a 56-54 Atlanta lead at the half and an 88-88 tie at the end of regulation. In overtime, Breanna Stewart's layup put New York up 98-97 with 33.8 seconds left, Naz Hillmon answered with a layup off a Rhyne Howard assist, and Angel Reese made both free throws with 4.3 seconds left. Stewart's 32-foot three in the final seconds did not fall. Ten DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Jordin Canada 10+ points (-339 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Canada scored 10 or more in each of her last 6, including 25 in Game 1, and Allisha Gray's absence freed up more shots. - What happened: 23 points on 9-15 shooting with 8 assists in 39 minutes, 13.5 over the line. - Worth watching: She is taking on a bigger share with Gray out. Her points line is worth checking while that holds.

Breanna Stewart 18+ points (-335 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Stewart scored 18 or more in each of her last 6 while playing 37-40 minutes. - What happened: 35 points on 11-21 shooting and 11-13 at the line in 43 minutes, 17.5 over the line, with 11 rebounds. - Worth watching: Overtime added minutes, but she cleared the number by 17.5. Her workload is the anchor here.

Breanna Stewart 3+ assists (-300 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: She had 3 or more assists in each of her last 6, with 3 in Game 1. - What happened: 6 assists, 3.5 over the line. - Worth watching: She paired 35 points with 6 assists in 43 minutes. Low assist numbers on high-minute stars are steady props.

ALT: Dream +8.5 (alt, targeted -300 or better): CASHED - Our read: Atlanta had beaten New York by 10, 18 and 11 in their last three meetings, was 15-7 at home, and was still favored without Gray. - What happened: Atlanta won by 3, so the alt line cleared by 11.5. - Worth watching: A game decided in overtime is exactly why the extra points matter. Close finishes like this one are why we take the alt cushion.

Dream -2.5 (-105 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: The line moved from Dream -1.5 to -2.5 after Atlanta won Game 1 92-82, and New York was still without Satou Sabally. - What happened: Atlanta won by 3 in overtime, 0.5 past the number. Reese's two free throws with 4.3 seconds left made the difference. - Worth watching: This one needed overtime and the last two free throws. A short spread in a game this close carries real coin-flip risk.

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Leonie Fiebich 3+ rebounds (-289 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Fiebich grabbed 3 or more boards in 8 of her last 10, and Sabally's absence kept her minutes high. - What happened: 5 rebounds in 43 minutes, 2.5 over the line. - Worth watching: She played 43 minutes even while scoring 4 points. Minutes, not shots, drive this prop.

Rhyne Howard under 3.5 made threes (-178 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Howard made 3 or fewer threes in 9 of her last 10 and went 1-for-8 from deep in Game 1. - What happened: She shot 2-6 from three, 1.5 under the line, and finished with 18 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists. - Worth watching: She played 44 minutes and still stayed under. Volume from deep has not followed her minutes in this series.

Pauline Astier under 3.5 assists (-148 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Astier had 3 or fewer assists in 8 of her last 10, with 1 in Game 1. - What happened: 1 assist in 14 minutes, 2.5 under the line. - Worth watching: She played 14 minutes. Assist unders on low-usage guards fit this rotation.

DeWanna Bonner 10+ points (-255 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: With Gray ruled out, Bonner was in line for more minutes after scoring 23 in 30 minutes once Gray left Game 1 early. - What happened: Exactly 10 points in 34 minutes, 0.5 over the line. She shot 2-11 from the field and got there at the line, 5-6. - Worth watching: The minutes showed up and the shot did not. Free throws saved it, which is worth remembering at a steep price.

Angel Reese under 11.5 rebounds (-120 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Reese finished with 11 or fewer boards in 7 of her last 10, including 7 in Game 1 with Jonquel Jones grabbing 11 for New York. - What happened: 7 rebounds in 39 minutes, 4.5 under the line. She also scored 23, including the clinching free throws. - Worth watching: Five of her 7 boards were offensive, and Jones had 8 for New York. Her defensive rebounding was the part that stayed low.

How the game played out

New York shot 55% from the field to Atlanta's 40%, but the Dream won the extra possessions: 11 offensive rebounds to 5, and only 7 turnovers to New York's 16. Atlanta also made 21 of its 23 free throws. Jones scored 21 and Marine Fauthoux hit 4 threes for 20.

Trends to watch

  • Minutes for Stewart (43) and Fiebich (43) stayed heavy with Sabally out.
  • Atlanta without Gray: Canada and Reese each scored 23, and Howard played 44 minutes.
  • This game had 17 lead changes and needed overtime. Short spreads carry more risk than the alt line in games this tight.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on alt lines, the point spread and our WNBA hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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