Valkyries vs. Dream Recap: Stokes Grabs 16 Boards in 67-62 Win

The Golden State Valkyries beat the Atlanta Dream 67-62 in a game they controlled for most of the afternoon. Golden State led 42-26 at the half and by as many as 16, then held on as Atlanta won the second half 36-25. Ball security stood out: Atlanta committed 18 turnovers to Golden State's 9, and the Valkyries scored 16 points off them. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Kiah Stokes 7+ rebounds (-188 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Stokes had grabbed 7 or more rebounds in 9 of her last 10, with 7, 11 and 11 in Finals Games 1-3. With Iliana Rupert still out, we expected her to keep 25-30 minutes at center. The main line was 7.5. - What happened: She played 31 minutes and pulled down 16 rebounds, 8 on the offensive glass and 8 on the defensive end, clearing the line by 9.5. She also blocked 3 shots. - Worth watching: She played a bit more than the 25-30 minutes we expected, and the boards followed. In a game where both teams shot poorly (Atlanta made 18 of 54 shots, Golden State 26 of 72), there were plenty of rebounds to go around. As long as her role at center stays the same, her rebounding line is worth a look again.

Jordin Canada 10+ points (-196 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Canada had scored 10 or more in 9 of her last 10, including 13 and 10 in Games 2-3, while playing 33-38 minutes a night at the point. The main line was 11.5, so the 10+ alt gave us a cushion. - What happened: She scored exactly 10 in 36 minutes, making 3 of 8 shots and 4 of 6 free throws, and added 4 assists. It cleared by the slimmest margin possible. - Worth watching: This one shows why the alt mattered: the main line sat at 11.5, and the 10+ number is what got there. Her minutes stayed in the same range, and her trips to the line helped carry her to the number on a cold shooting night.

How the game played out

Golden State built its lead with a 26-point second quarter. Atlanta clawed back after the break, winning the third quarter 19-12 and the fourth 17-13, but could not close the gap. Rhyne Howard led Atlanta with 19 points and 8 rebounds. The Dream got to the line 31 times and made 22, but shot just 4 of 23 from three.

Trends to watch

• Stokes grabbed 8 offensive rebounds in 31 minutes. Her rebounding is tied to minutes, and the minutes are tied to the frontcourt rotation.
• Canada played 36 minutes and got to the line 6 times. Her floor comes from minutes and free throws, but today's margin was thin, so watch where the line is set before backing her again.
• Both teams were cold from deep, combining to make 8 of 48 threes. Low shooting nights tend to inflate rebound totals for the bigs on both sides.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on these bets: player props, alt lines, and implied probability.