Breakeven Calculator: The Win Rate Your Odds Need
Every price has a win rate it needs just to break even. Enter American odds to see it, and compare it with how often you think the bet wins.
At -110, a bet has to win 52.4% of the time just to break even. Win more often than that at this price and you come out ahead over time; win less and you lose money.
How the breakeven win rate works
The breakeven win rate is the price's implied probability. At -110 you risk $110 to win $100, so you need to win 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.4% of the time to break even. At +150 you risk $100 to win $150, so you need 100 / 250 = 40%.
This is why the standard -110 price matters: hitting 52% of your bets at -110 still loses money over time.
Breakeven win rate for common odds
| Odds | Breakeven win rate |
|---|---|
| -300 | 75.0% |
| -200 | 66.7% |
| -150 | 60.0% |
| -120 | 54.5% |
| -115 | 53.5% |
| -110 | 52.4% |
| -105 | 51.2% |
| +100 | 50.0% |
| +110 | 47.6% |
| +120 | 45.5% |
| +150 | 40.0% |
| +200 | 33.3% |
| +250 | 28.6% |
| +300 | 25.0% |
| +500 | 16.7% |
Learn the math
Questions
What win rate do you need to break even at -110?
52.4%. At -110 you risk $110 to win $100, so the breakeven rate is 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.4%. Win less often than that at -110 and you lose money over time.
How is the breakeven win rate calculated?
It equals the price's implied probability. For minus odds: odds / (odds + 100), using the number without the minus sign, so -200 is 200 / 300 = 66.7%. For plus odds: 100 / (odds + 100), so +150 is 100 / 250 = 40%.
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