Closing line value (CLV)
What does "closing line value (CLV)" mean in sports betting?
Closing line value (CLV) measures whether you got a better price than the final price before the game started. Beating the closing line consistently is one of the best signs of a real edge.
The closing line is the last price before the game starts, after the market has absorbed all the news and money. If you regularly bet numbers that turn out better than the close, you're usually getting in ahead of the market.
CLV is useful because results are noisy. A few hundred bets can swing on luck, but consistently beating the close shows up much sooner.
Example
You bet a team at +150 (implied 40%). By kickoff the price is +130 (implied 43.5%). You got a better number than the market settled on, which is positive CLV, whether or not the bet wins.
Related terms
Implied probability
Implied probability is the win chance a price suggests. It turns odds into a percentage so you can compare them with your own estimate.
Expected value (EV)
Expected value (EV) is the average amount a bet would win or lose per play if you could make it many times. Positive EV (+EV) means the price is better than the true chance.
Line movement
Line movement is when a sportsbook changes a spread, total, prop or price after it opens, usually because of news or the money coming in.
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