Implied probability
What does "implied probability" mean in sports betting?
Implied probability is the win chance a price suggests. It turns odds into a percentage so you can compare them with your own estimate.
For a favorite (minus odds), divide the odds by the odds plus 100: -150 becomes 150 ÷ 250 = 60%. For an underdog (plus odds), divide 100 by the odds plus 100: +150 becomes 100 ÷ 250 = 40%. For decimal odds, it's 1 divided by the price.
Implied probability includes the book's margin, so adding up both sides of a market comes to more than 100%. A bet has positive expected value only when your honest estimate of the chance is higher than the implied probability of the price you can get.
Example
A prediction-market contract priced at 63 cents implies a 63% chance. A sportsbook price of -170 implies 63.0%. If you believe the real chance is 70%, both prices look good. If you think it's 60%, neither does.
Related terms
Vig (juice)
The vig, also called juice or the hold, is the commission a sportsbook builds into its prices so it profits no matter which side wins.
American odds
American odds show how much you risk to win $100 (minus numbers) or how much you win on a $100 bet (plus numbers).
Decimal odds
Decimal odds show the total amount returned per $1 staked, including your stake. They're common in Europe and on some exchanges.
Expected value (EV)
Expected value (EV) is the average amount a bet would win or lose per play if you could make it many times. Positive EV (+EV) means the price is better than the true chance.
Go deeper
Pull up to the board.
Every play on the board comes with its price, its confidence and the reasoning, written for the books you actually use. It's free to join.
Join DARIMARKET free