Expected value (EV)
What does "expected value (EV)" mean in sports betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average amount a bet would win or lose per play if you could make it many times. Positive EV (+EV) means the price is better than the true chance.
EV = (chance of winning × profit if it wins) − (chance of losing × amount lost). You never know the true chance for sure, which is why research and price shopping matter: they're how you estimate it and get paid more for it.
A +EV bet can still lose, and often will. EV describes the long run, not the next result.
Example
You bet $100 at +150. If the real chance is 45%, EV = 0.45 × $150 − 0.55 × $100 = +$12.50 per bet. If the real chance is 40%, EV is exactly $0, because +150 already implies 40%.
Related terms
Vig (juice)
The vig, also called juice or the hold, is the commission a sportsbook builds into its prices so it profits no matter which side wins.
Implied probability
Implied probability is the win chance a price suggests. It turns odds into a percentage so you can compare them with your own estimate.
Closing line value (CLV)
Closing line value (CLV) measures whether you got a better price than the final price before the game started. Beating the closing line consistently is one of the best signs of a real edge.
Unit
A unit is a fixed slice of your bankroll, commonly 1% to 2%, used to size every bet so stakes stay consistent.
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