Gambler's fallacy
What does "Gambler's fallacy" mean in sports betting?
The mistaken belief that a random streak has to even out soon, so a result is 'due' after it hasn't happened for a while.
Independent events don't remember what came before. A coin, a roulette wheel or a dice roll carries the same odds on every try, no matter how long the streak. The name is tied to the 1913 Monte Carlo roulette run, when black came up 26 times in a row and players lost heavily betting on red.
In sports, games aren't coin flips, but the betting line already reflects recent form, injuries and how people are betting. A streak by itself isn't a reason to bet. The question is always whether the price is wrong.
Example
A fair coin lands heads 5 times in a row. The chance of 6 straight heads from the start was 1 in 64, about 1.6%. Once 5 have landed, the next flip is still 50/50. A team that has failed to cover 5 straight isn't more likely to cover the 6th because of the streak.
Related terms
Implied probability
Implied probability is the win chance a price suggests. It turns odds into a percentage so you can compare them with your own estimate.
Line movement
Line movement is when a sportsbook changes a spread, total, prop or price after it opens, usually because of news or the money coming in.
Hot hand fallacy
The belief that a player or team on a streak is more likely to keep it going than the numbers support.
Martingale
A staking system where you double your bet after every loss so one win recovers everything. It risks huge stakes to chase a small gain.
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