Hot hand fallacy

It's the mirror image of the gambler's fallacy: instead of expecting a streak to end, you expect it to continue. A 1985 study by Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky found no evidence of hot streaks in basketball shooting. In 2018, Miller and Sanjurjo showed a statistical bias in that method, and correcting it reversed the result. Real hot streaks may exist, but the effects tend to be small.

For bettors, the risk is paying for a run the line has already priced in.

Example

A 45% shooter makes three straight shots. The chance of that is 0.45 x 0.45 x 0.45, about 9.1%, so it happens often by luck alone. If you price his next shot as if he's suddenly a 60% shooter, you're paying for the streak, not a proven change in skill.