How to read a player prop hit rate: the number, the sample and the context
A hit rate is how often a player reached a number in games already played. "Points 25+: 8 of 10" means he scored 25 or more in 8 of his last 10 games. It describes the past. It is not a forecast.
Read the number with three questions
- How big is the sample? 5 of 5 and 50 of 60 are both strong, but five games can swing on one hot week. Early in a season, a current-season 6 of 6 tells you more about this year's role than a last 10 padded with last season.
- How recent is it? Look at last 5, last 10 and the full season side by side. If last 5 is far below the season rate, something may have changed: minutes, role, a teammate back from injury.
- What is different tonight? Check the injury report for both teams, home or away, rest days and the opponent. A 9 of 10 built with the starting point guard out can look different once he returns.
Look at the actual games, not just the rate
A rate hides the margin. 8 of 10 at 25+ with scores of 26, 25, 27 and 25 is thinner than 8 of 10 with 34, 31, 38 and 30. DARIMARKET shows every game behind each rate, so you can see how close the misses and the hits were.
Compare the rate to the price
A price implies a probability. -400 implies about 80%, -200 about 67% and -150 60%. A hit rate higher than the price implies is a reason to research further, not a promise. Prices move, so check FanDuel or DraftKings before you tap in.
Where to find them
Every tracked NBA, NFL and NHL player has a page with last 5, last 10 and season hit rates for each stat at darimarket.us hit rates. Today's star lines are at NBA hit rates today. Short version of this page: What is a hit rate?
21+. Research, not picks: hit rates are past results only. If betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
FAQ
What does a 7 of 10 hit rate mean? The player reached that number in 7 of his last 10 games. It says what happened, not what will happen next.
Is a 100% hit rate a sure thing? No. A perfect rate over a small sample can end on any night, and injuries, minutes and matchups change. Treat it as a starting point for research.
Should I use last 5, last 10 or season hit rates? Use all three together. Season shows the baseline, last 10 shows the current form, and last 5 flags a recent change in role or minutes.