What is a hit rate in sports betting?
What is a hit rate in sports betting?
A hit rate is how often a player cleared a prop line in their recent games. If a player scored more than 22.5 points in 8 of his last 10 games, his last-10 hit rate on over 22.5 points is 8 of 10, or 80%. Hit rates describe what already happened. They are a research starting point, not a prediction, and they don't account for injuries, minutes or matchups on their own.
Sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings post a line for each player prop, such as 22.5 points or 64.5 receiving yards. A hit rate checks that line against the player's real box scores: in how many of the last 5, 10 or 20 games did he go over (or stay under) that number?
Hit rates are most useful side by side. A line that cleared in 9 of the last 10 and 5 of the last 5 tells a steadier story than one that cleared in 6 of 10 with a big game skewing the average. Check the sample size too: 4 of 5 is a much smaller sample than 8 of 10.
What a hit rate leaves out: a change in role or minutes, an injury to a teammate, the opponent's defense, blowout risk and the price the book is asking. Use it to narrow your list, then check those things before acting.
DARIMARKET shows free last-5 and last-10 hit rates for every tracked NFL, college football, NBA, WNBA, MLB and NHL player, on the lines FanDuel and DraftKings post.