Matthew Schaefer by the numbers: can a 19-year-old carry 27 minutes?

Thirty-three seconds. That is all the overtime the Islanders needed in Minnesota on Thursday night. Matthew Schaefer took a feed from Jean-Gabriel Pageau and beat Jesper Wallstedt with a wrist shot. Islanders 4, Wild 3.

It was his second goal of the night. In between, he picked up an assist on Bo Horvat's power-play goal. Three points, 30:01 of ice time, and a sixth straight game with a point, which the Islanders say matches his career high.

Here is the question we wanted to answer. Schaefer is 19. He is coming off a unanimous Calder Trophy. In his second season, the Islanders are not easing off. They are leaning on him harder. Can a teenager carry close to 27 minutes a night and keep getting better? Four numbers tell the story so far.

Where he started: a rookie year for the record book

The Islanders took Schaefer first overall in the 2025 draft, and he never looked like a rookie. He played all 82 games, scored 23 goals, added 36 assists and finished with 59 points while averaging 24:41 a night, per Daily Faceoff. Those 23 goals tied Brian Leetch for the most ever by a rookie defenseman. When the Calder votes came in, he had all 198 first-place votes.

He also learned early how to end games. In November 2025 he won one in overtime against Utah at 18 years and 70 days old, which the Associated Press reported made him the youngest player ever to score a regular-season overtime goal. Sidney Crosby was 18 years and 101 days old when he did it.

Number one: 26:58 a night

Through 13 games this season, Schaefer is averaging 26:58 of ice time, based on ESPN's box scores. That is more than two minutes above his rookie average.

The trend is still climbing. The Hockey News found he averaged 25:25 over the Islanders' first six games and 28:01 over his next six. His career high, 32:16, came in a shootout win at Nashville this week, and he played all five minutes of that overtime. Then he logged 30:01 in Minnesota two nights later.

The extra time is not coming from the power play. His power-play minutes actually dipped, from about 4:11 a game to 3:39 over a five-game stretch. Instead, he is living at even strength: 22:21 a night at evens, tied with Zach Werenski for second in the league behind Quinn Hughes, per The Hockey News as of Oct. 28.

Number two: 14 points in 13 games

Schaefer has 4 goals and 10 assists, and he has a point in 10 of his 13 games. Four of those assists came on the power play.

The scoring arrived late. He had no goals through his first nine games, then scored 4 in his last 4: one at home against Los Angeles, one in Dallas and two on Thursday. The goal in Dallas on Sunday was the 25th of his career, and The Hockey News noted it moved him ahead of Bobby Orr for second among defensemen in goals scored before turning 20. Only Phil Housley has more. Schaefer is now at 27, and he won't turn 20 until next September.

Number three: 3.8 shots a game

He has 50 shots on goal in 13 games. The big nights are huge: 9 shots against the Kings, just over 20 percent of the Islanders' 43, and 8 against Tampa Bay. He has 2 or more shots in 11 of 13 games and 3 or more in 8 of 13.

It is not smooth, though. He had just 1 shot against Anaheim and 1 more in Dallas, and that Dallas shot was a goal. Volume follows minutes and game script, so the floor is lower than the average suggests.

Number four: 58 percent

This is the number that answers our question. According to Natural Stat Trick data cited by The Hockey News, the Islanders own more than 58 percent of the 5-on-5 shot attempts and better than 53 percent of the expected goals when Schaefer is out there. Last season those figures were 50.02 and 50.66 percent.

So he is not just surviving the bigger workload. With more minutes, the ice is tilting further in New York's favor when he is on it.

Next up: the Oilers on Saturday

Edmonton visits UBS Arena on Saturday at 2 p.m. EDT. The Oilers come in 9-2-2 and 5-0-0 on the road, per ESPN. The Islanders are 7-4-2 and 4-1-1 at home after winning their last two.

One lineup note to watch: Ryan Pulock left Thursday's game with an upper-body injury, per the Islanders, and New York finished with five defensemen. Check the official lineup before puck drop.

What it means on the board

• Points: a point in 10 of 13 games and a regular power-play role are why his 1+ point market keeps showing up in our research. Thursday's board had him for a point, and you can see how it played out in the Islanders-Wild recap.
• Shots on goal: 3.8 a game is the average, but the range runs from 1 to 9. A line set near his average reads very differently for a player this streaky, so check how often he clears it, not just the average.
• Ice time is the input: his minutes drive both markets. Lineup news on the Islanders' blue line matters before you tap in.
• Game lines: a road-perfect Oilers team against a home team that has won two straight is the context for the moneyline, puck line and total. It is research, not a promise.

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21+. Research and commentary, not betting advice.