Air Force vs. Nevada Recap: Szarka's 171 Yards Win It in 2OT

Air Force beat Nevada 36-33 in double overtime, after it looked settled in regulation. Liam Szarka's 8-yard touchdown run put Air Force up 27-17 with 5:56 left. Nevada kicked a field goal, and then Herschel Turner broke a 57-yard touchdown run with 1:49 left to tie it at 27. Air Force drove near midfield, but Szarka was intercepted with 21 seconds left. Both teams kicked field goals in the first overtime. Nevada kicked another to open the second, and Rocco Conti ended it with a 7-yard touchdown run. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Air Force ML (-238 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Air Force was running for 319 yards a game and turning it over 0.5 times a game. Nevada was turning it over 2.7 times a game, ranked 126th in passing success rate, and had QB Carter Jones just back from a shoulder injury.
• What happened: Air Force won 36-33. The run game showed up: 70 carries for 363 yards and 36:04 of possession. The turnover edge did not. Nevada had zero turnovers, Jones threw for 224 yards without an interception, and Air Force's one turnover came in a tied game in the final minute.
• Worth watching: The core of the read, the run game, held. It took two overtimes to cash, so the turnover numbers deserve less weight than the rushing edge next time.

ALT: Air Force +1.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Air Force was a 5.5-point favorite (DraftKings -112), and Dimers' 10,000-sim model had it winning 67% of the time. +1.5 only needed Air Force to win outright or lose by one.
• What happened: Air Force won by 3 and covered +1.5 by 4.5. With no ties in college football, this was a moneyline bet with a one-point safety net.
• Worth watching: Taking points instead of laying them was the right side of the trade in a game this close. A run-heavy team shortens the game, which keeps margins tight.

ALT: Liam Szarka 45+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Szarka had run for 51 and 88 yards in Air Force's two games, with 3 rushing touchdowns. Nevada had lost two straight.
• What happened: He carried 33 times for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns, and cleared 44.5 by 126.5. He scored from 1 yard out in the second quarter and from 8 yards out in the fourth, and his long was 32. He also went 5 of 12 passing, 92 yards with a touchdown to Matt Long.
• Worth watching: He was the offense. With 33 carries, a higher tier would have cashed too, and it is worth pricing one alongside this number next time.

How the game played out

Carter Jones completed 18 of 30 passes, 224 yards, with a 50-yard catch by Donnie Cheers. Turner had 11 carries for 111 yards and two touchdowns, and Dominic Kelley added 60 yards on 13 carries. Joe McFadden made all 4 of his field goals, including two in overtime. Nevada scored the last 10 points of regulation to force the extra periods.

Trends to watch

• Air Force's run game is the steady number: 363 yards on 70 carries, with Szarka getting 33. His rushing props stay on our board.
• With a heavy-run team, taking points has more appeal than laying them. Air Force led by 10 late and still won by only 3.
• Nevada gained 411 yards in only 23:56 of possession. Its offense can score fast, which matters for any Nevada number.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the point spread, the moneyline and the alt line.