N. Dakota St. vs. New Mexico Recap: Bison Cover in a 21-16 Loss

New Mexico beat North Dakota State 21-16 on Saturday night in a low-scoring game that came down to the final minutes. The Lobos scored on their opening drive with a 29-yard Kiefer Sibley run and added a Scottre Humphrey touchdown with 10 seconds left in the first half for a 14-3 lead. NDSU cut it to 14-9 in the third quarter, Austin Brawley returned an interception 56 yards for a touchdown early in the fourth, and the Bison answered with a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to get within five. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: North Dakota State +6.5 (-140 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: NDSU had stayed within 6.5 points in all 7 of its games this year, including all 4 against FBS opponents, and the main line was New Mexico -4.5.
• What happened: The Bison lost by five and covered by 1.5. Nathan Hayes hit Mekhi Collins for a 4-yard touchdown with 6:42 left, which turned a 12-point deficit into the final margin.
• Worth watching: Taking the extra two points off a short main line paid off in a one-score game. NDSU's habit of keeping games close is worth tracking against FBS teams.

ALT: New Mexico over 18.5 points (-200 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: New Mexico had scored 19 or more in 9 of its last 10 games and in all of its last 8 at home, averaging 34.1, with a main team total of 22.
• What happened: The Lobos finished with 21, clearing the alt line by 2.5. The defense helped: Brawley's pick-six provided the final touchdown.
• Worth watching: New Mexico's offense came up empty on two second-half field goal tries, so the alt cushion mattered. A low alt team total gives room for nights when the offense stalls.

How the game played out

Both defenses controlled most of the night. The second quarter saw six straight punts before New Mexico's late scoring drive. The Lobos leaned on the run, with 44 carries for 187 yards, while Toa Fa'avae completed 8 of 14 passes for 92 yards. Sibley led all rushers with 13 carries for 91 yards. For NDSU, Hayes threw for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns, with Reis Kessel catching a 15-yard score in the third quarter. Jackson Williams led the Bison in receiving with 71 yards on 4 catches, a long of 41. North Dakota State's last drive ended on downs.

Trends to watch

• Sibley averaged 7.0 yards per carry. His rushing yardage line is the one to check next time New Mexico leans on the ground.
• NDSU ran 28 times for only 53 yards. The Bison's offense ran through Hayes and the passing game.
• NDSU converted 5 of 15 third downs and New Mexico 3 of 13. Low third-down rates kept this total down, and they are worth checking before backing an over in a matchup like this.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. See our guides on the point spread and alt line, or the full board on /cfb.