App State vs. NC State Recap: Jayden Scott Breaks the 31-31 Tie

NC State beat App State 41-31, but it had to win the game twice. NC State jumped out 21-0 early in the second quarter on a CJ Bailey run, a Jayden Scott run and a Bailey touchdown pass. It was 28-10 at halftime. App State chipped away, and Malachi Singleton threw fourth-quarter touchdowns to Sam Pickett III and Gavin Barber to tie it 31-31 with 9:41 left. NC State answered with a 9-play, 75-yard drive capped by Scott's 16-yard run, then added a field goal. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Malachi Singleton 225+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Singleton came in having thrown for 291, 267 and 331 yards. App State was a 13.5-point underdog, so we expected it to throw a lot.
• What happened: He completed 26 of 38 passes for 317 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, clearing 224.5 by 92.5 yards. Pickett had 97 receiving yards on 5 catches with a long of 54, and Nate Branch added 87 yards on 9 catches. App State ran for only 62 yards on 22 carries, so the offense ran through Singleton's arm.
• Worth watching: The game script matched the read: App State trailed early and had to throw. With his recent numbers, 225+ left a lot of room.

NC State ML (-535 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: NC State was running for 223 yards a game with Bailey starting, and only TE Vander Ploog and WR Davion Dozier were listed day-to-day. App State's run defense, allowing 91.7 a game, was our one worry, so we took the ML over the spread.
• What happened: NC State won by 10. The run game did its part: 206 yards on 46 carries, with Scott going for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 carries. NC State converted 11 of 17 third downs and held the ball for 36:23. But a 21-0 lead turned into a tie game in the fourth quarter, so this was closer than the final suggests.
• Worth watching: The read on the run game held up, and taking the ML over the -12.5 to -14 main spread was the right call. At -535 it only belongs in a parlay.

ALT: NC State -6.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: The main line was -12.5 to -14, so the alt gave us about a touchdown of cushion at home.
• What happened: NC State won by 10 and covered by 3.5 points. At 31-31 with 9:41 left, this was losing. Scott's touchdown run at 5:08 put NC State up 7, enough to cover on its own, and Kanoah Vinesett's 35-yard field goal with 1:51 left added room. The main spread would not have covered.
• Worth watching: This is the game the cushion is built for. We gave up payout for points, and those points were the difference.

How the game played out

App State didn't turn the ball over and kept coming back. Jaquari Lewis scored on a 2-yard run in the third quarter, and Singleton's two late touchdown passes came on drives of 42 and 36 yards. After NC State went back ahead, App State turned it over on downs and then came up empty on a field goal try on its last drive. Bailey finished with 253 passing yards on 24 of 33, with 2 touchdowns and an interception for NC State.

Trends to watch

• Singleton has now thrown for 317 yards on top of 291, 267 and 331. When App State is an underdog, his passing alts stay worth a look.
• Scott had 25 carries for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns. NC State's run volume makes his yardage and touchdown props worth checking.
• NC State let a 21-point lead become a tie. When we like a big favorite, the ML or an alt spread is safer than laying the full main number.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, the parlay and our college football hub.