Arkansas St vs. Louisiana Recap: Walk-Off FG Cashes Louisiana ML

Louisiana beat Arkansas State 23-20 at home on a 37-yard Tony Sterner field goal as time expired. It was a back-and-forth game. Louisiana led 7-0 after the first quarter and Arkansas State led 10-7 at halftime. The second half had three lead changes, the last one on the final kick. Louisiana ran for 246 yards on 42 carries and outgained Arkansas State 435 to 293. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Louisiana ML (-225 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Louisiana came in 3-1 as a 5.5-point home favorite. QB Lunch Winfield had 295 rushing yards and 6 TDs, and Arkansas State QB Trey Owens had thrown 4 INTs.
• What happened: Louisiana won by 3, and it took every second. Owens played clean, completing 20 of 31 passes for 206 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, and Arkansas State had no turnovers. Louisiana won it on the ground and on the clock instead, holding the ball for 34:08. After Arkansas State went three-and-out late, Louisiana drove 72 yards in 13 plays over 3:54 to set up the winning kick. Winfield ran for 7 and 9 yards on that drive.
• Worth watching: This was a long shot by our own confidence that landed, and it was closer than the price suggested. A home favorite that leans on its run game can still get dragged into a one-score finish.

ALT: Lunch Winfield 50+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Louisiana's QB had rushed for 84, 91, 92 and 28 yards. With 13 to 20 carries a game, he was effectively the lead back.
• What happened: Winfield ran 14 times for 64 yards and a touchdown, 14.5 over the line. He had an 11-yard run on Louisiana's first touchdown drive and finished it himself from 2 yards. His long was 11, so this came from steady carries rather than one big run. He was also sharp throwing, completing 18 of 21 passes for 189 yards.
• Worth watching: His 14 carries landed right in the range from our read. When a QB gets lead-back volume, a rushing alt under his recent output is worth checking again.

How the game played out

Louisiana fumbled on its opening drive, then scored on its second. Arkansas State answered with a 14-play field goal drive and a 21-yard touchdown pass from Owens to Jaylen Bonelli with 31 seconds left in the half. In the second half, JJ Garner's 13-yard touchdown run put Louisiana up 17-13, Solomon Baggett answered with a 6-yard score for Arkansas State, and Sterner hit from 25 yards to tie it at 20 before the winner.

Trends to watch

• JJ Garner ran 7 times for 78 yards and a touchdown, more yards than Winfield on half the carries.
• Chauncy Cobb was Arkansas State's top target with 8 catches for 65 yards.
• Sterner made three field goals, and two came in the final 5:38.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the moneyline and the alt line, or see more at the college football hub.