Boise St vs. W Michigan Recap: Dylan Riley's 28 Carries Set the Tone

Boise State beat Western Michigan 32-7, and it was 32-0 until Western Michigan scored with 1:03 left. Boise scored on its opening drive, a 34-yard touchdown pass from Maddux Madsen to Matt Wagner plus a two-point run, and later put together a 15-play, 78-yard drive that ended with a Dylan Riley touchdown run. Boise held the ball for 36:46, converted 10 of 14 third downs and did not turn it over. Western Michigan went 2 of 11 on third down, turned it over on downs twice in the third quarter and threw an interception. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Boise State +2.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Boise was a 7.5-point road favorite and -285 on the moneyline. Taking points with the better team meant it could even lose by 2 or fewer and still cash.
• What happened: Boise won by 25, so +2.5 cleared by 27.5. Western Michigan never led and didn't score until the final two minutes. Its best first-half chance, a 10-play, 58-yard drive, ended with a 40-yard field goal try that came up empty.
• Worth watching: Flipping a favorite to a small plus number costs juice, but it turns the bet into "Boise doesn't lose by 3 or more." That was never in question here, and it's a structure worth reusing with a team that controls the ball.

ALT: Dylan Riley 70+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Riley had 454 rushing yards on 62 carries, 7.3 per carry and 151 per game, including a career-high 206 against Memphis. With Sire Gaines (wrist) a game-time decision, we expected Riley to get even more carries.
• What happened: He ran 28 times for 138 yards and a touchdown, with a long of 26, clearing 69.5 by 68.5 yards. He took 28 of Boise's 42 rushing attempts, and his 5-yard touchdown finished the 15-play drive in the first half. He added one catch for 15 yards.
• Worth watching: The volume read was right. His 4.9 yards per carry was well below his season rate, and he still nearly doubled the line because of the workload.

How the game played out

Madsen was efficient: 16 of 23 passing, 204 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. Wagner caught 7 passes for 94 yards and two of those scores. Western Michigan's Broc Lowry completed 15 of 28 passes, 110 yards, with an interception, and his team finished with 223 total yards. Boise's defense held Western Michigan scoreless for more than 58 minutes.

Trends to watch

• Riley got 28 carries in a game Boise controlled from start to finish. When Boise is favored, his rushing volume is the anchor, even when his yards per carry drops.
• Boise's passing game was sharp on limited attempts. Madsen threw only 23 times, so his yardage lines depend on how much Boise needs to throw.
• Boise's 36:46 of possession and 10 of 14 on third down left Western Michigan few chances. Teams that control the ball like this are the ones worth flipping to a plus number.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the point spread, the alt line and the vig.