DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Sat, Oct 3

Cincinnati vs. Arizona Recap: Fifita Leads a 34-7 Rout

Final · Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats
Arizona 34, Cincinnati 7
Board plays on this game
6 of 12 hit. We post the misses too.

Arizona beat Cincinnati 34-7, and the Wildcats were in control from the opening drive. Arizona outgained Cincinnati 522 to 227, held the ball for 35:39 and did not allow a point until 1:56 remained. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, the moneyline and spread plus four Arizona player props.

What cashed

Arizona ML (-250 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Arizona at home with Noah Fifita completing 75% of his passes, with Cincinnati's run game flagged as the main threat. - What happened: Cincinnati ran 28 times for 74 yards. Arizona led 10-0 at the half and scored 24 straight after the break to put it away. - Worth watching: When the run game we flagged as the risk is held under 3 yards a carry, the favorite has a much easier path. The price was steep, so this is a side to size carefully.

Arizona -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Two outside projections we follow had Arizona by about 9, the line opened at 7.5, and Fifita came in with 1,131 yards and 11 TDs. - What happened: Arizona won by 27, covering by 20.5. The key stretch was the end of the first half: Cincinnati's 14-play, 86-yard drive ended on downs, and Arizona answered with a 16-play, 92-yard drive for a field goal with 0:01 left. - Worth watching: The margin made the number moot this time, but getting it under 7 after a 7.5 open is still the kind of price edge worth tracking.

ALT: Noah Fifita 225+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Fifita had 1,131 yards and 11 TDs through four games (283 a game) and threw for 297 and 4 TDs at Washington State last week. Kansas State's Avery Johnson had just thrown for 292 on Cincinnati. - What happened: Fifita threw for 284 yards on 25-of-37 passing, 59.5 over the line. He also ran for an 8-yard TD in the third quarter. - Worth watching: He landed one yard above his season average. That steadiness is why an alt rung below his average has been a comfortable spot.

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ALT: Noah Fifita 2+ passing touchdowns (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Fifita had 11 TD passes in 4 games, with four in each of the last two, and Cincinnati had allowed 31 and 26 in its last two. - What happened: This one got there with no room to spare. Fifita hit Brandon Phelps for a 24-yard score in the third quarter and Tyler Powell from 5 yards out with 5:21 left. His own 8-yard TD run did not count toward this prop. - Worth watching: Arizona also scored twice on the ground, so red-zone play calls can eat into this number. Two is still a fair bar for a passer with his recent output.

Chris Hunter under 4.5 receptions (+106 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Hunter had 11 catches in four games and stayed under 4.5 in three of them, with Tre Spivey and others taking the targets. - What happened: Hunter caught 2 passes for 20 yards, both in the first quarter. Ten different Arizona players caught a pass, and no one had more than 5. - Worth watching: Fifita spreads it around. A plus-money under on a secondary receiver in this offense keeps lining up with how the ball gets distributed.

Tre Spivey under 73.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Spivey, Arizona's top receiver, averaged about 70 yards a game (19 catches, 278 yards). His 4 TDs made the line look bigger than his yardage, and one projection we follow had him at 61. - What happened: Spivey caught 3 passes for 36 yards, 37.5 under the line. All three came in the second quarter, with a long of 20. - Worth watching: The same spread-it-around offense that kept Hunter quiet capped Spivey too. When his yardage line runs ahead of his actual average, the under is worth a look.

How the game played out

Kedrick Reescano's 10-yard run capped a 75-yard opening drive. Cincinnati came up empty on its early chances, including a 14-play drive in the second quarter that ended on downs deep in Arizona territory. Arizona then scored on four straight drives after halftime to make it 34-0 before JC French IV ran in a late touchdown.

Trends to watch

  • Arizona ran for 238 yards on 41 carries, led by Antwan Roberts Jr. (87 yards on 5 carries) and Quincy Craig (77 on 7).
  • Cincinnati converted 7 of 16 third downs but finished with just 227 yards and one score.
  • Arizona converted 9 of 14 third downs and held the ball for 35:39, which kept Cincinnati's offense off the field.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on these markets, see moneyline, point spread and more games at /cfb.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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