Colorado St vs. UTSA Recap: A Late Peterson TD Seals the Cover

UTSA beat Colorado State 59-45, and it was closer than the final margin looks. Colorado State led 14-0 inside the first two minutes, on a 94-yard kickoff return by Mel Brown and a 74-yard touchdown pass from K'saan Farrar to Terrence Smith Jr. UTSA answered with 35 straight points. Colorado State got back within 7 four times after that, and it was 52-45 with 2:09 left before A'Marion Peterson's 47-yard touchdown run put it away. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, and two of them were called by Darius.

What cashed

UTSA ML (-581 at FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Colorado State was down to its backup quarterback on the road. It was a short price, but UTSA was our most confident straight-up winner in that window.
• What happened: UTSA won by 14 and led for good from late in the first quarter. Owen McCown threw for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns on 20 of 30 passing, and UTSA finished with 542 yards, 239 of them on the ground. UTSA did not turn the ball over.
• Worth watching: At -581 this is a parlay leg, not a single bet. It did its job.

ALT: UTSA -6.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Colorado State QB Hauss Hejny was out, and backup K'saan Farrar had 127 passing yards and no touchdowns in two appearances. The main line was UTSA -13.5, so we took seven points of cushion.
• What happened: UTSA won by 14, covering -6.5 by 7.5. It was much tighter late. At 52-45 with 2:09 left, the alt was covering by half a point and the main -13.5 was losing. Peterson's touchdown run on UTSA's next snap made both lines cover.
• Worth watching: The cushion is exactly why we take the alt. Farrar played far better than his first two appearances, throwing for 344 yards on 29 of 46 passing with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, and the extra points covered that.

ALT: Will Henderson III 50+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Henderson was averaging 73 rushing yards a game, and we expected UTSA to play with a lead against a backup QB and lean on the run in the second half.
• What happened: He ran 14 times for 89 yards, clearing 49.5 by 39.5. His long was 36 yards, and he scored on a 13-yard run in the first quarter to tie it 14-14. The heavy second-half script never really came, since Colorado State stayed within 7 into the fourth quarter, but he had the line covered anyway.
• Worth watching: The line sat well under his average, so it did not need the game script to cash. That kind of cushion is what we look for in a rushing alt.

How the game played out

Colorado State put up 500 yards and went 5-for-6 on fourth down. Mel Brown had 90 rushing yards on 12 carries plus the 94-yard return, and Terrence Smith Jr. had 102 receiving yards. The Rams scored 45 and still never got closer than 7 after the first quarter. UTSA also returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown by Mekhi Anderson, right after Colorado State had cut it to 35-28. On the ground, UTSA spread the work: Henderson led the way, Brandon High Jr. had 76 yards on 14 carries, and Peterson added 60 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 carries.

Trends to watch

• A backup QB is not an automatic fade. Farrar had 127 yards in two appearances and threw for 344 here. We'll price these games on the matchup, not just the name on the depth chart.
• UTSA ran for 239 yards but spread it across three backs. For Henderson, alt lines well under his average look better than the main number.
• Heavy favorites like this one at -581 only make sense as parlay legs. The alt spread gave a real price on the same read.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, the moneyline and the parlay, or see more at CFB.