Colorado vs. Baylor Recap: Baylor -3.5 and Freeman 5+ Catches Cash

Baylor beat Colorado 23-13 in a game that was tied 13-13 early in the fourth quarter. DJ Lagway, back after missing two games, hit Jadon Porter for a 33-yard touchdown with 9:02 left, and Rhett Armstrong added a 54-yard field goal to close it out. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, and both were built around Lagway's return.

What cashed

ALT: Baylor -3.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Called by Darius. The main line was -9.5 with 95% of moneyline tickets on Baylor. Lagway was officially available after missing two games, and Colorado was coming off a 41-7 loss at Northwestern with four turnovers while missing a WR, a TE and a starting corner. Rather than lay 9.5, we bought down to 3.5. - What happened: Baylor won by 10, covering -3.5 by 6.5. It was not comfortable. Colorado put together a 12-play, 95-yard drive that ended with Isaac Wilson finding Joseph Williams for a 17-yard touchdown at 11:04 of the fourth to tie it. Baylor answered with a 5-play, 65-yard drive capped by the Porter score, then Armstrong's 54-yarder made it 23-13 with 4:28 left. - Worth watching: The main number of 9.5 also covered, but only by half a point. The alt gave us 6.5 points of room in a game that was level late, which is the point of buying down when a favorite's price looks steep.

ALT: Gavin Freeman 5+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Freeman was averaging 9.7 catches and 102 yards a game, by far the top target on the team. Baylor planned to limit Lagway's designed runs in his return, which keeps the ball in the air. - What happened: Freeman caught 6 passes for 59 yards, 1.5 over the line, including a 3-yard touchdown from Lagway that put Baylor up 10-3 in the second quarter. Lagway threw 39 passes and ran just twice for 3 yards, so the pass-first plan held. - Worth watching: Six catches is well under his season pace, even with 39 attempts. That gap is why the lower alt made sense here instead of chasing his full average.

How the game played out

Colorado outgained Baylor 363 yards to 337, and Williams caught 11 passes for 127 yards. He also threw a 49-yard completion. But Colorado converted 3 of 15 third downs, and its last two drives ended in a lost fumble and a turnover on downs. Dawson Pendergrass carried the Baylor run game with 85 yards on 16 carries.

Trends to watch

• Freeman still led Baylor with 6 catches and a score. With Lagway back and throwing 39 times, his reception line stays in play.
• Pendergrass had 16 carries and a long of 17 while Caden Knighten and Ryelan Morris combined for 29 yards on 14 carries. He is the back to watch in this offense.
• Colorado used two quarterbacks, with Wilson throwing 25 passes and Julian Lewis 16. Williams was the constant, with 11 catches.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn how alt lines and the point spread work, or see the college football hub.