Duke vs. Virginia Recap: Sheppard TD Pass Wins It Late, 19-16

Duke beat Virginia 19-16 on a 28-yard touchdown pass from Nate Sheppard to Brody Keefe with 1:14 left. Virginia controlled the ball for 38:47 and ran 53 times for 195 yards, but Duke never trailed by more than 6. The Cavaliers led 13-7 at halftime on two Will Bettridge field goals, Gavin Strange answered with two field goals of his own to tie it 13-13, and Bettridge's third kick put Virginia up 16-13 with 3:00 left. Duke then went 75 yards in 7 plays, and Patrick Smith-Young intercepted Virginia on its final drive. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Duke +6.5 (-200 FanDuel / -246 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Duke would have covered +6.5 in all 6 of its games this year, with its worst results being losses by 3 and 4, and in 8 of 8 recent road games. The main line was Duke +2.5. - What happened: Duke won outright by 3, so the ticket cleared by 9.5. Its largest deficit all night was 6 points, at halftime. - Worth watching: Duke keeps its games close. Taking the extra points on an alt spread has fit this team all season.

ALT: Duke over 18.5 points (-225 FanDuel / -250 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Duke had scored 19 or more in 5 of 6 games (17, 31, 35, 62, 25 and 20) and in 8 of 8 recent road games. Virginia had allowed 23 or more in 4 of its last 5. The main Duke team total was 22.5. - What happened: Duke scored 19, clearing the line by 0.5. It was as close as it gets: Duke had 13 until the final touchdown, and the extra point after it failed. - Worth watching: Duke had the ball for only 21:13 and converted 2 of 10 third downs. When the opponent controls the clock like Virginia did, team totals get tight.

Nate Sheppard anytime TD (-310 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Sheppard had 12 touchdowns in 6 games, 8 rushing and 4 receiving, on 820 rushing yards, and had scored in 9 of his last 10. He had Duke's only offensive touchdown against UNC the week before. - What happened: He scored on a 32-yard run in the first quarter, then threw the game-winning 28-yard touchdown pass late. He finished with 15 carries for 55 yards and 2 catches for 11 yards. - Worth watching: Duke uses him as a runner, a receiver and a passer. With that many ways to touch the ball, his anytime TD stays in play.

Walker Eget 175+ passing yards (-180 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Eget had cleared 175 in his last 5 games and 7 of 10, with 1,229 yards in 6 games and 249 against UNC. The main line was 192.5. - What happened: He threw for 211 yards on 14 of 25 passing with 1 interception, 36.5 over the 174.5 line. Jonah Burton caught 4 passes for 59 yards. - Worth watching: Duke threw for 256 yards and ran for 71. When the run game stalls like that, Eget's passing yards carry the offense.

How the game played out

Jekail Middlebrook ran 24 times for 117 yards and Virginia's only touchdown, and Beau Pribula added 66 rushing yards on 21 carries. Pribula threw for 158 yards with an interception. Virginia went 5 of 17 on third down and turned it over twice, and Bettridge's three field goals made up the rest of its scoring.

Trends to watch

• Virginia ran 53 times and held the ball for 38:47. Opponents' team totals can get squeezed against this style, so alt lines with room fit better than the main number.
• Sheppard ran, caught passes and threw a touchdown. His usage gives him several paths to the end zone each week.
• Eget topped 175 again while Duke ran for only 71 yards. His passing yards line holds up best when the run game is quiet.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about point spreads and anytime touchdown bets, or see today's college football board.