Miami vs. Clemson Recap: Mensah and Fletcher Cash in a Rout

Miami beat Clemson 41-13 on the road and led from the first snap. Darian Mensah hit Cooper Barkate for a 61-yard touchdown on Miami's opening play, and Mensah added a 34-yard touchdown run early in the second quarter for a 17-3 lead. Clemson kicked its way to 17-6 at halftime, but Miami controlled the second half on the ground. Miami ran for 192 yards and had zero turnovers. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Miami ML (-750 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Miami was a 15.5 to 16.5-point favorite. Clemson had ruled out S Polo Anderson, CB Shavar Young Jr. and DTs Kourtney Kelly and Markus Strong, and Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. was available.
• What happened: Miami won by 28. Clemson never got closer than seven points after the opening touchdown, and Miami outgained Clemson 419 to 350.
• Worth watching: A heavy favorite facing a shorthanded defense is a fair anchor. At this price it is a building block, not a standalone.

ALT: Miami -7.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Clemson listed seven players out, including both starting DTs, Anderson and Young. Miami came in 4-0 with a main line of -15.5, so -7.5 left a full touchdown of cushion.
• What happened: Miami covered by 20.5. Clemson's best push came early in the fourth quarter, when Gideon Davidson's 2-yard run cut it to 27-13. Miami answered with a 9-play, 62-yard drive capped by a Fletcher 1-yard run, and JJ Dunnigan returned an interception 39 yards for a score with 1:49 left.
• Worth watching: Injury news on one side of the ball plus a double-digit main line is the setup we like for a trimmed spread.

ALT: Darian Mensah 200+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Mensah came in completing 94 of 106 throws (89%) with games of 401, 252, 220 and 338 yards. Clemson's secondary was down two starters.
• What happened: Mensah completed 18 of 27 passes for 227 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions, 27.5 yards over. The 61-yard strike on the first play did a lot of the work, and he had 141 yards at halftime. A 20-yard completion with 3:44 left in the third quarter pushed him past 200.
• Worth watching: An accurate QB facing a thin secondary is a good fit for a lowered yardage number. He did not need a big volume game to clear it.

ALT: Under 55.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Our pregame read leaned on the weather forecast for kickoff, with a full touchdown of cushion over the main number, and on a Clemson passing game that had not topped 130 yards a game.
• What happened: The game landed on 54 points, 1.5 under. This one was close. Clemson's passing game did not stay quiet, as Tait Reynolds threw for 295 yards. What held the total down was Clemson's run game, 55 yards on 31 carries, and two Clemson drives that ended in Nolan Hauser field goals. The score sat at 34-13 before Dunnigan's late pick-six moved it to 54.
• Worth watching: Alt cushion is what saved this one. A defensive or late special teams score can swing a total, so the extra points of room matter.

ALT: Mark Fletcher Jr. 50+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: This was a long shot by our numbers, under 65 confidence. RB CharMar Brown was out and Fletcher was expected to play. He had run for 105 and 85 in two of his three games with carries, and Clemson was missing two starting DTs.
• What happened: Fletcher finished with 16 carries for 77 yards and two touchdowns, 27.5 yards over. He was slow early, with 17 yards at halftime and 42 after three quarters. Then runs of 14 and 18 yards early in the fourth quarter took him to 74. He also scored on a 2-yard run to finish a 14-play, 83-yard drive in the third quarter.
• Worth watching: Fletcher got 16 carries with Miami ahead all game. Rushing props on the lead back of a big favorite are worth a look when the game script should favor the run.

How the game played out

Miami's 14-play, 83-yard drive in the third quarter took 7:58 off the clock and made it 24-6. Clemson fumbled on the next snap, and Jake Weinberg turned it into a 24-yard field goal. Clemson was flagged 10 times for 91 yards. Reynolds finished with minus 22 rushing yards on 14 carries.

Trends to watch

• Miami's defense scored or set up points off both Clemson turnovers.
• Bryant Wesco Jr. caught 9 passes for 152 yards for Clemson, so its passing game can move the ball even when the offense stalls.
• Miami split carries between Fletcher and Javian Mallory, who added 63 yards on 14 carries.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the alt line and point spreads, or see more at the college football hub.