Miami vs. North Carolina Recap: Mensah, Toney and the Over Cash

Miami beat North Carolina 38-35 in a back-and-forth game. The teams traded touchdowns for three quarters, neither side led by more than 7 until the final minutes, and the Tar Heels led 28-24 early in the fourth. Miami answered with two straight touchdowns, the second set up by a North Carolina fumble, and held on after a late Tar Heels score. The offenses combined for 823 total yards and Miami did not turn it over. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Darian Mensah 2+ passing TDs (-220 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Mensah had cleared 2+ passing TDs in 9 of his last 10 games and 17 of his last 20. At -220 the price implied about 69%, below the roughly 83% rate from his recent games. - What happened: Mensah threw 3 touchdown passes with no interceptions, clearing the line by 1.5. He hit Malachi Toney from 2 yards out in the first quarter, Mark Fletcher Jr. on a 31-yard score in the second, and Toney again from 9 yards late in the fourth. - Worth watching: The edge here was the gap between his recent rate and the price. As long as he keeps finishing drives through the air, this alt is worth checking each week.

ALT: Darian Mensah 220+ passing yards (-293 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Mensah had cleared 220+ passing yards in 9 of his last 10 and 17 of his last 20. The -293 price implied about 75% against roughly 83% from recent games. - What happened: He completed 22 of 29 passes and threw for 274 yards, 54.5 over the line, at 9.4 yards per attempt. He also added 36 rushing yards on 4 carries. - Worth watching: He did this on only 29 attempts, so the yardage did not need a big volume game. The price was steep, so it mostly works as a parlay leg.

Malachi Toney anytime TD (-190 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Toney had scored in 8 of his last 10 games and 6 of 7 this season as Miami's top target. Books priced it around 66%. - What happened: He scored twice. The first came on Miami's opening drive, a 13-play, 74-yard march capped by a 2-yard catch. The second was a 9-yard catch with 2:33 left that put Miami up 38-28. He led Miami with 7 catches and added an 11-yard run. - Worth watching: He was the focal point both early and late, including in the red zone. That usage is what keeps an anytime TD on him in play.

ALT: Over 43.5 total points (-370 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Recent games for these two teams went over 43.5 in 16 of 20 combined, and Miami games had gone over 43.5 in 10 straight. - What happened: The game landed on 73 points, 29.5 over the line. It was 17-14 at halftime and the teams combined for 42 points after the break. - Worth watching: Both offenses moved the ball, with Miami at 416 yards and North Carolina at 407. When both teams' recent scoring sits this far above an alt total, the lower number is worth a look, though the price gets expensive.

ALT: North Carolina +13.5 (-104 at DraftKings and FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: North Carolina had covered +13.5 in 8 of its last 10 and 7 of 7 this season, with an average margin of -2.1 over its last 10. The alt shaved half a point off the main +14. - What happened: The Tar Heels lost by 3, covering by 10.5. They were never down more than 10, and they scored with 1:38 left to make it a one-score game. - Worth watching: North Carolina had covered this number in 7 of its last 8 home games, and it kept this one close. The key detail was that the alt cost about the same as a standard spread.

ALT: North Carolina over 16.5 team points (-180 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: North Carolina had scored 17+ in 8 of its last 10 and 5 of 5 lately. It also fit with the over 43.5 and North Carolina +13.5 we already had on the board. - What happened: The Tar Heels scored 35, clearing the number by 18.5. They had 21 points by early in the third quarter. Billy Edwards Jr. completed 28 of 34 passes and threw for 341 yards and 4 touchdowns. - Worth watching: This one fit with the total and the spread, which makes it a natural same-game pairing when the reads agree.

How the game played out

North Carolina's offense was efficient, going 8 of 11 on third down, and Jelani Thurman caught two of Edwards' touchdown passes. The swing came after the Tar Heels went up 28-24. Miami went 75 yards for the go-ahead score, then North Carolina fumbled on its next drive. Miami needed only 37 yards on the short field to go up 10.

Trends to watch

• Mensah was efficient on modest volume, with 274 yards on 29 attempts. Passing yardage alts like this are worth watching when his attempts stay in that range.
• Toney scored on Miami's opening drive and in the fourth quarter. He led the team in catches, which keeps his scoring props worth a look.
• North Carolina threw for 341 yards and ran for only 66 on 30 carries. Edwards' passing props are worth a look against defenses that leave the pass game open.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to alts? Start with alt lines and same-game parlays, or browse more games on the college football hub.