Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Recap: Hawkins Hits 194 in Shootout

Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 51-49 on a Kyle Konrardy 34-yard field goal as time ran out. The game had 100 points and 1,114 total yards. Oklahoma State trailed by 10 three different times in the second half and kept coming back, then took a 49-48 lead on a Wyatt Young touchdown with 53 seconds left. Iowa State needed only 5 plays to get into range for the winning kick. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, five of them on the Oklahoma State offense.

What cashed

Caleb Hawkins 70+ rushing yards (-240 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Hawkins had reached 70+ rushing yards in 8 of his last 10 games, 4 of his last 5 and 6 of 7 this season as the Cowboys' lead back. - What happened: He ran for 194 yards on 25 carries, 124.5 over the line, with touchdown runs of 75 yards and 1 yard. The 75-yard run came on a 2-play drive in the third quarter. He also caught 6 passes for 81 yards, including a 59-yard touchdown, for 275 yards from scrimmage. - Worth watching: Hawkins got 25 of Oklahoma State's 32 rushing attempts. That share of the carries is what makes his rushing props worth a look each week.

ALT: Drew Mestemaker 2+ passing TDs (-240 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Mestemaker had cleared 2+ passing TDs in 9 of his last 10 and 16 of his last 20. The -240 price implied about 71% against roughly 80% from recent games. - What happened: He threw 5 touchdown passes, 3.5 over the line: two to Young, two to Justin Bowick and one to Hawkins. - Worth watching: He spread the scores across three players, so this angle does not depend on one target. The gap between his recent rate and the price is the part to keep checking.

Drew Mestemaker 291+ passing yards (-114 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Mestemaker had cleared 291+ passing yards in 8 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 20. At -114 the price implied about 53%, well below the roughly 67% from his recent games. - What happened: He completed 27 of 42 passes and threw for 323 yards, 32.5 over the line. Bowick led the way with 7 catches for 124 yards. - Worth watching: He threw 42 times in a shootout. Yardage props at a near-even price are worth a look when the game script points to a lot of passing.

Wyatt Young 5+ receptions (-114 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Young had cleared 5+ receptions in 7 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20. The -114 price implied about 53% against roughly 65% from recent games. - What happened: He caught 7 passes for 74 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2.5 over the line. He scored from 10 yards in the first quarter and from 7 yards with 53 seconds left, which capped a 12-play, 75-yard drive. - Worth watching: Young was tied for the team lead in catches and got the ball in the red zone late. His catch volume keeps this line worth a look.

ALT: Miles Coleman 3+ receptions (-166 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Coleman had cleared 3+ receptions in 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 19. The -166 price implied about 62% against roughly 73% from recent games. - What happened: He caught 3 passes, clearing the line by 0.5. This one was close. - Worth watching: Coleman tied Terrence Lewis with 3 catches, behind Bowick, Young and Hawkins. With that many options getting the ball, a low catch number like this one is the safer way to play him.

ALT: Iowa State +16.5 (-226 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Iowa State had covered +16.5 in 9 of its last 10, 6 of 7 this season and 8 of its last 8 home games. Oklahoma State had not won by 17+ in 7 of its last 10. - What happened: Iowa State won outright by 2, covering by 18.5. Aiden Flora ran for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 carries, including a 75-yard score on the first play of a drive in the fourth quarter. - Worth watching: Iowa State has kept games close at home. A big alt cushion like this one gets pricey, but the Cyclones gave it plenty of room here.

How the game played out

Iowa State outgained Oklahoma State 581 to 533 and ran for 272 yards on 44 carries. Jaylen Raynor threw for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Jamal Polite Jr. caught 6 passes for 171 yards. The late swing came after Oklahoma State threw an interception, which set up a short Iowa State field goal drive for a 48-42 lead. Oklahoma State answered, but left 53 seconds on the clock.

Trends to watch

• Hawkins carried 25 times and caught 6 passes. That workload keeps both his rushing and receiving props worth a look.
• Mestemaker threw 42 passes and Oklahoma State spread the ball to six receivers. When the Cowboys are in a high-scoring game, his volume props stay in play.
• Iowa State ran for 272 yards, with Flora carrying 29 times. His carry count makes his rushing props worth watching next time out.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on pricing these, see player props and implied probability, or find more games on the college football hub.