Minnesota vs. Washington Recap: Huskies Run Game Never Showed

Minnesota won 27-24 at Washington and never trailed. Drake Lindsey threw three first-half touchdown passes, one right after a Washington interception, and Minnesota led 21-10 at the half. Washington ran for 40 yards on 27 carries and converted 1 of 10 third downs. Demond Williams Jr. cut it to 27-24 with a 13-yard touchdown run at 1:53, but Washington got only one more snap. Seven DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all posted before kickoff.

What cashed

Minnesota +9.5: CASHED

• Our read: The line had dropped from 11.5 to 9.5, and Washington was without its top three running backs.
• What happened: Minnesota won outright, covering by 12.5, and held the ball for 36:01.
• Worth watching: The injury read was right. Washington's missing backs showed up in a 40-yard rushing day.

Minnesota +12.5: CASHED

• Our read: DraftKings moved from +9.5 to +12.5, and Washington was 0-3 ATS with three running backs and S CJ Christian ruled out.
• What happened: Covered by 15.5.
• Worth watching: Same read, three extra points. That's what line shopping is for.

ALT: Minnesota +17.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: With Washington down three tailbacks and Minnesota playing at a slow pace, +17.5 only needed Minnesota to avoid a three-score loss.
• What happened: Covered by 20.5.
• Worth watching: We paid an alt price for cushion we never needed. When the main number is moving your way, the plain spread can be the better ticket.

ALT: Washington team total Under 34.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Washington was down three running backs, its starting center was questionable or doubtful, and it averaged about 20 against FBS teams.
• What happened: Washington scored 24, 10.5 under, at 1.5 yards per carry.
• Worth watching: The missing backfield showed up where we expected. A thin backfield is a good reason to check a team total under.

ALT: Demond Williams Jr. 225+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Williams was averaging 296.7 passing yards per game.
• What happened: He threw for 239 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 18-of-28 passing, clearing 224.5 by 14.5.
• Worth watching: An alt well below his average held up on a rough day. Washington had the ball for only 23:59, so the low bar mattered.

ALT: Dezmen Roebuck 5+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Roebuck was averaging 7.7 catches per game as Washington's top target.
• What happened: He caught 7 passes, including a 16-yard touchdown, clearing 4.5 by 2.5.
• Worth watching: He got his usual volume on only 28 team passes. That kind of target share is worth tracking.

ALT: Dezmen Roebuck 45+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: He had 41, 59 and 121 yards in three games, and with the backs out, short passes become the run game.
• What happened: He finished with 87 yards, clearing 44.5 by 42.5.
• Worth watching: This was the cleanest way to play Washington's injuries. His yardage floor held even in a low-possession game.

How the game played out

Minnesota scored three touchdowns before halftime, the first on a one-play drive after the interception. The second half was mostly punts and field goals until Washington scored twice in the fourth. Minnesota outgained Washington 329 to 279 and ran 33 times to Washington's 27.

Trends to watch

• When a team loses its running backs, the top receiver's floor holds. Roebuck had 7 catches and 87 yards on a day Washington ran for 40.
• Washington went 1 of 10 on third down. Short-handed offenses like this one make team total unders worth a look.
• Minnesota held the ball for 36:01 and ran 33 times. A slow underdog that controls the clock is the profile we look for with a big spread.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, line movement and the point spread.