DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Sat, Oct 24

Ole Miss vs. Texas Recap: Texas Holds On 34-27, Three Plays Cash

Final · Ole Miss Rebels at Texas Longhorns
Texas 34, Ole Miss 27
Board plays on this game
3 of 4 hit. We post the misses too.

Texas beat Ole Miss 34-27 at home. The Longhorns built a 24-3 halftime lead on two Arch Manning touchdowns and a Michael Terry III run, then went scoreless in the third quarter as Ole Miss scored 21 straight points to tie it 24-24 early in the fourth. Manning answered with a 1-yard touchdown run at 8:04, and Gianni Spetic added a 33-yard field goal before Ole Miss kicked one of its own with 1:22 left. Both teams turned it over three times, and Texas was flagged 14 times for 134 yards. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Trinidad Chambliss 225+ passing yards (-172 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Chambliss had cleared 225 in 9 of his last 10, averaging 295.6, and in 12 of 15 last season. - What happened: He completed 25 of 52 passes for 250 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, 25.5 over the 224.5 line. It came late: he had 63 yards at halftime and 160 with 7:47 left, then threw for 90 on Ole Miss's last two drives. A 13-yard completion with 1:02 left put him at 226. - Worth watching: The volume showed up with 52 attempts while Ole Miss chased the game. At 4.8 yards per attempt, though, this one leaned on that volume more than efficiency.

ALT: Texas over 21.5 points (-310 DraftKings / -330 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Texas had scored 22+ in 8 of its last 8 home games and 8 of its last 10, at 30.4 a game, with a main team total of 28.3. - What happened: Texas scored 34, 12.5 over the line. It was over before halftime, when Terry's 2-yard run with 9:21 left in the second quarter made it 24-3. Raleek Brown ran 23 times for 157 yards. - Worth watching: Texas cleared the main team total too, despite 14 penalties and 3 turnovers. A run game that put up 207 yards gives this number a steady base.

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ALT: Over 43.5 total points (-367 DraftKings / -390 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Texas games had gone over 43.5 in 8 of their last 10 and Ole Miss games in 9 of 10, with a combined average of 55.4 and a main total of 53.5. - What happened: The teams combined for 61, 17.5 over the line. The game sat at 27 points at halftime, and Horatio Fields' 27-yard touchdown catch to tie it 24-24 with 13:57 left pushed it to 48. - Worth watching: Going 10 points under the main total gave this room even with a scoreless third quarter from Texas. The second half alone produced 34 points.

How the game played out

Ryan Wingo caught 7 passes for 111 yards for Texas, including a 50-yard touchdown from Manning, who also ran for two scores. The Ole Miss defense made plays all night: Kam Franklin scored on a fumble recovery early in the third, and Jalyn Crawford had two interceptions. Fields caught both of Chambliss's touchdown passes. Texas held the ball for 34:57.

Trends to watch

  • Texas was flagged 14 times for 134 yards and still scored 34. The offense has a high floor when the run game works.
  • Ole Miss converted 6 of 18 third downs and Chambliss threw 52 times. Heavy passing volume keeps his yardage line in reach even on an inefficient night.
  • Texas ran for 207 yards on 42 carries, with Brown averaging 6.8 a carry. Rushing props for the Texas backfield are worth tracking.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about alt lines and totals, or see today's college football board.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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