N Dakota St vs. UNLV Recap: Bison +6.5 Cashes by a Half Point

UNLV beat North Dakota State 13-7 in a low-scoring, sloppy game where the defenses did most of the damage. UNLV's only touchdown came on defense, an Andre Porter 23-yard interception return in the first quarter. North Dakota State tied it on a 21-yard Nathan Hayes pass to Chris Kiel in the second, and Ramon Villela kicked field goals of 29 and 24 yards after halftime for the final margin. The teams combined for four turnovers and 18 penalties. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, and one of them came down to the last half point.

What cashed

ALT: North Dakota State +6.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: North Dakota State was a 2.5-point favorite, and Dimers projected a 25-23 Bison win. The +6.5 alt covered anything short of a UNLV win by a touchdown. - What happened: North Dakota State lost by 6 and covered by 0.5. That is about as close as it gets. The Bison threw three interceptions, including the pick-six, but UNLV's offense never scored a touchdown, and Villela's second field goal with 10:57 left set the final margin. North Dakota State's last drive ended in an interception. - Worth watching: This is the value of the alt cushion: the extra points turned a close loss into a cash. Know your number before you buy points, because a half point decided this one.

Jai'Den Thomas 10+ rush attempts (alt, worth it at -250 or better): CASHED - Our read: Thomas, UNLV's lead back, came in with 73 carries in five games, 14.6 a game, and 10+ in 9 of his last 10. With the game priced within a field goal, we did not expect UNLV to abandon the run. - What happened: Thomas carried 22 times for 112 yards with a long of 15. That is 12.5 attempts over the line. UNLV ran 48 times as a team and threw only 16 passes, so the workload was never in doubt. - Worth watching: Thomas tied for the most carries of anyone on the field. In close, low-scoring games, his attempts prop is worth a look again.

How the game played out

North Dakota State outgained UNLV 300 to 255, and Myles Mitchell carried 22 times for 91 yards. UNLV's Jackson Arnold completed 8 of 16 passes for 77 yards and ran 19 times. Mumu Bin-Wahad had two interceptions for UNLV, and the Rebels held the ball for 33:28.

Trends to watch

• Arnold's 19 carries make him a real part of UNLV's run game. His rushing attempts deserve a look alongside Thomas.
• Mitchell matched Thomas with 22 carries for North Dakota State. He is the Bison's workhorse when the game stays close.
• UNLV threw just 16 passes for 77 yards. With this much run volume, its passing props lean low.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more in our point spread and hook guides, or find more games on the CFB hub.