DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Thu, Oct 1

North Texas vs. Tulsa Recap: White's 219 Yards Lead a 45-44 OT Win

Final · North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
North Texas 45, Tulsa 44
Board plays on this game
7 of 10 hit. We post the misses too.

North Texas beat Tulsa 45-44 in overtime on Thursday night, and it took every snap to settle it. Tulsa led 17-10 at the half before North Texas scored 21 straight points in the third quarter to go up 31-17. Tulsa scored three more touchdowns in regulation, the last a Baylor Hayes 10-yard run with 0:31 left that tied it 38-38. In overtime, Tayven Jackson punched in a 1-yard run, Damari Alston scored from 2 yards out for Tulsa, and the two-point pass failed. North Texas outgained Tulsa 559 to 352 despite three turnovers. Seven DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Jahiem White 60+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: White had 363 rushing yards and 7 TDs in 4 games, with 133 yards and 4 scores last week, and he was healthy. - What happened: 32 carries for 219 yards, 159.5 over the line. His 84-yard run in the third quarter set up a 90-yard touchdown drive, and even without it he had 135 yards on his other 31 carries. - Worth watching: A 32-carry workload is the kind of volume that keeps a rushing alt in range. If North Texas keeps feeding him like this, his rushing number is worth a look each week, priced against the main line.

Jahiem White anytime TD: CASHED - Our read: 7 rushing TDs in 4 games, 7.0 yards per carry, and a rushing TD in 6 straight games. - What happened: White scored on a 14-yard run at 6:13 of the third quarter, the touchdown that put North Texas up 31-17. It was a long shot that landed. - Worth watching: The streak held up again, and 32 carries give him plenty of chances to find the end zone. He is a name to price each week.

ALT: Tayven Jackson 225+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Jackson threw for 233, 492 and 270 in his last three games, averages 9.3 yards per attempt, and Tulsa allows 257 passing yards a game. His main line was about 285.5. - What happened: 332 yards on 24-of-39 passing with 4 touchdowns, 107.5 over the line. He also threw 2 interceptions and ran in the overtime score. - Worth watching: The alt sat well under his recent range, which is why it had room to spare. When his main line is in the high 200s, the cushion on a lower alt is the angle we like.

ALT: Justin Stevenson 50+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: 281 yards in 4 games, 122 and 69 the last two, and he played and scored last week. - What happened: 5 catches for exactly 50 yards. The line was 49.5, so this cashed by half a yard. His catches went for 6, 8, 9, 14 and 13 yards, and the last two were touchdowns. - Worth watching: He was a red-zone target with two scores, but his long was 14. That is a thin margin, and we would want a lower number before going back to it.

These plays were on the board before kickoff.Join the board free →

North Texas moneyline (-142 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: North Texas averages 39.5 points and 516 yards, and Tulsa converts 27% on third down and scored 6 at Arkansas last week. - What happened: North Texas won 45-44 in overtime. Tulsa converted 3 of 17 third downs, though it still found the end zone often enough to force extra time. - Worth watching: The yardage gap showed up, but North Texas also had three turnovers to Tulsa's zero in a one-point game. A price near -142 leaves little room when a team gives the ball away like that.

ALT: North Texas +7.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Ten points of cushion on a road favorite, with North Texas holding the better offense by 15 points a game and a 90% red-zone rate. - What happened: North Texas won outright by 1, so the +7.5 cashed by 8.5. - Worth watching: In a game that went to overtime, the extra points of cushion did the work. Buying a favorite up to the other side of the number is the angle when the game script looks volatile.

ALT: North Texas over 27.5 team total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: North Texas scored 35 at Texas State and 63 last week, and Jackson was completing 74% for about 297 yards a game. - What happened: North Texas scored 45, clearing the line by 17.5. It had 31 points by the middle of the third quarter. - Worth watching: Six touchdowns and a field goal against Tulsa back up the scoring profile. A lower alt on this offense's team total is a fair look while it keeps producing like this.

How the game played out

Tulsa had the early edge, scoring 17 points in the second quarter while North Texas lost a fumble, turned it over on downs and threw an interception before the break. The third quarter flipped it: three North Texas touchdown drives in a row, including the 90-yarder. Hayes finished with three touchdown passes and two rushing scores, and Oran Singleton Jr. caught 11 balls for 104 yards.

Trends to watch

  • White carried 32 times, and North Texas ran 45 times in all. That volume is the base for his rushing props.
  • Stevenson caught both of his touchdowns from inside the 15, and Jackson spread 24 completions across eight receivers. With the ball spread that wide, any one receiver's yardage line can be thin.
  • Tulsa converted just 3 of 17 third downs and punted eight times, but still scored four touchdowns after halftime, counting overtime.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to alternate numbers? See alt lines and the moneyline glossary, or find more games on the CFB hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

More College Football recaps

Today's College Football picks →

DARIMARKET

Pull up to the board.

The next slate is already on the board, ranked by confidence, with live calls during the games. It's free to join.

Join DARIMARKET free