Oklahoma vs. Florida Recap: Sooners Win Outright to Cash +10.5
Oklahoma beat Florida 23-7 on the road and controlled the ball for 37:50. Tate Sandell opened the scoring with a 41-yard field goal, and John Mateer capped a 15-play, 84-yard drive with a 3-yard touchdown pass to Hayden Hansen. Florida got its only points on a 15-yard Jadan Baugh run with 3:00 left in the half, but Sandell hit from 48 yards before the break for a 13-7 lead. The third quarter was scoreless. Oklahoma then put together a 20-play, 89-yard drive that ate 12:45 and ended with Mateer finding Isaiah Sategna III for a 6-yard score. Sandell added a 31-yarder to finish it. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
ALT: Rocky Beers 36+ receiving yards (-114 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Beers had cleared 36+ receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 games and 11 of his last 17. The price of -114 implied about 53%, and his recent run put him near 69%. - What happened: Beers caught 4 passes for 72 yards with a long of 41, 36.5 yards past the line. He led Oklahoma in receiving yards on a night Mateer threw for 207. - Worth watching: One long catch did a lot of the work, but he had 4 receptions to back it up. A near-even price on a receiver with this kind of recent form is worth a look again.
Jadan Baugh anytime TD (-140 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Baugh had scored in 8 of his last 10 games and 6 of 8 this season as Florida's lead back. The -140 price at FanDuel was about 58% implied. - What happened: Baugh scored from 15 yards out with 3:00 left in the second quarter to cut it to 10-7. That drive went 4 plays and 52 yards. He finished with 8 carries for 35 yards and 1 catch for 7. - Worth watching: Eight carries is a thin workload, and Florida had the ball for just 22:10. He still found the end zone, but volume is the thing to check before backing this again.
ALT: Oklahoma +10.5 (-245 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Oklahoma had stayed inside 10.5 in 8 of its last 10 games and 6 of 8 this season, and Mateer was set to start per the Nov 3 reports. - What happened: Oklahoma won outright by 16, so the ticket cleared by 26.5 points. Mateer completed 21 of 33 passes for 207 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, and ran 14 times for 56 yards. Oklahoma did not turn it over and picked off Florida twice. - Worth watching: Getting points with a team that can win the possession battle is the angle here. Oklahoma converted 10 of 18 third downs and held the ball for 37:50.
ALT: Isaiah Sategna III 4+ receptions (-322 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Sategna had 4+ catches in 5 of his last 5, 8 of his last 10 and 7 of 8 this season. He was not on Saturday's availability report and is Oklahoma's top wide receiver. - What happened: Sategna caught exactly 4 passes for 34 yards, clearing by 0.5. His fourth-quarter 6-yard touchdown catch closed the long drive that put the game away. - Worth watching: This one had no room to spare. At -322 the price is heavy for a line that came down to one catch, so the number matters as much as the role.
How the game played out
Florida's offense never settled in. The Gators gained 203 total yards, converted 2 of 9 third downs and threw 2 interceptions, to Peyton Bowen and Courtland Guillory. Tramell Jones Jr. completed 10 of 22 passes for 133 yards. Duke Clark was the bright spot with 4 catches for 70 yards.
Trends to watch
- Oklahoma's ground game: 40 rushing attempts for 144 yards, with Mateer and Lloyd Avant leading the way.
- Beers as a big-play target: 72 yards on 4 catches, with a long of 41.
- Sandell's leg: field goals from 41, 48 and 31 yards.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn how a point spread works and what an alt line is, or check the CFB hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.