Rice vs. Fresno St Recap: Fresno Pulls Away After Halftime

Fresno State beat Rice 38-24, but Rice led 17-14 at halftime. Rice hit big plays early: an 88-yard touchdown run by Ben Grice and a 40-yard touchdown pass from Jacurri Brown to Max Mosey. Fresno scored on its first four possessions of the second half, and a Rice fumble set up a short 19-yard touchdown drive. Rice ran for 344 yards and still lost by 14. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all posted before kickoff.

What cashed

Fresno State ML (-535 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Fresno allowed 153.8 passing yards a game, and Rice had only 203 passing yards all season, leaning on Brown's legs.
• What happened: Fresno won 38-24. Rice stayed one-dimensional through the air: Brown completed 8 of 17 passes for 119 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Fresno had no turnovers to Rice's two.
• Worth watching: At -535 this is a parlay piece, not a single bet. It held even with Fresno giving up 463 yards, because Rice could not throw its way back.

ALT: Fresno State -6.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: The main spread was -13.5 to -12.5 across books, and Fresno had covered the first-half spread in 8 of its last 11. At -6.5 Fresno only had to win by a touchdown.
• What happened: Fresno won by 14 and covered by 7.5. It was tighter than that for a while: Brown's 50-yard touchdown run cut it to 31-24 with 8:58 left, and Rayshon Luke answered with a 52-yard touchdown run on the next drive.
• Worth watching: The extra cushion was there when the game got close late. Against a team that can break long runs, buying points on the favorite is worth a look.

Fresno State -13.5: CASHED

• Our read: Rice was 3-of-22 on third down against FBS teams, and Fresno allowed 3.3 yards per carry, which we expected to slow Brown. We said to shop DraftKings -12.5.
• What happened: Fresno won by 14, so -13.5 covered by half a point. This was one of our lower-confidence plays, and it landed on the hook. The run-defense part of the read did not hold: Rice ran 46 times for 344 yards, and Brown had 141 on 19 carries. The cover came down to Luke's 52-yard score and a late Rice drive that ended on downs.
• Worth watching: At -12.5 it covers by 1.5. Shopping for the better number, or taking the alt, is the way to play this spot.

ALT: Josiah Freeman 40+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Freeman led Fresno with 12 catches for 195 yards, and Jayden Mandal was coming off a 23-of-26, 316-yard game.
• What happened: 6 catches for 66 yards, clearing 39.5 by 26.5, plus the 6-yard touchdown that tied it 7-7. He led Fresno in catches and yards while Mandal threw for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 34 attempts.
• Worth watching: He's the top target, and the 40+ alt left room. His receiving alts are worth a look while he keeps leading the team.

How the game played out

Brown ran for 141 yards and a touchdown, and Grice had 109 on just 7 carries. Rice outgained Fresno 463 to 459 and still lost by 14. Rice threw an interception on its first drive and lost a fumble in the third quarter. Luke gave Fresno the big play it needed late, with 167 yards on 11 carries.

Trends to watch

• Rice's passing numbers told us little about its run game. Any Fresno spread against a running QB should account for long runs.
• Fresno's backfield was split, and Luke broke the biggest runs with 167 yards on 11 carries. His role is worth watching before the next Fresno slate.
• Freeman led Fresno in catches and yards, as he does on the season. His alt receiving lines stay worth a look.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, the point spread and the hook, or head back to the college football hub.