DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Sat, Nov 7

South Alabama vs. Louisiana Recap: Jaguars Cover +16.5 in 2-Point Loss

Final · South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana 28, South Alabama 26
Board plays on this game
2 of 2 hit.

Louisiana beat South Alabama 28-26 at home in a game neither team ever led by more than 11. JJ Garner returned the opening kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown and later broke a 65-yard touchdown run. South Alabama answered both times: Bishop Davenport scored from 1 yard, and Jaylen Moson returned an interception 72 yards for a touchdown to tie it 14-14. Louisiana led 21-17 at the half and 28-17 after a 27-yard Shelton Sampson Jr. catch, but Davenport's 45-yard run and a 50-yard Dylan Freebury field goal pulled South Alabama within 2. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, both on South Alabama.

What cashed

ALT: South Alabama +16.5 (-290 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: The main spread was South Alabama +7, so +16.5 added 9.5 points. South Alabama had stayed inside 16.5 in 8 of its last 10 games and 7 of 8 this season. - What happened: South Alabama lost by 2, covering by 14.5. The largest Louisiana lead was 11, at 28-17 late in the third quarter, and South Alabama scored the next 9 points. - Worth watching: A big alt cushion on an underdog that keeps games close is a steady angle. The tradeoff is the price: -290 needs to win about 74% of the time to break even.

ALT: South Alabama over 17.5 points (-295 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: South Alabama had scored 18+ in 9 of its last 10 games and 7 of its last 8 road games, averaging 33.4 over its last 10. DraftKings implied a team total of 24.8. - What happened: South Alabama scored 26, 8.5 past the line. The team sat at 17 until Davenport's 45-yard run in the third quarter put it over, and Freebury's 50-yarder added 3 more. The scoring came from 3 touchdowns (2 Davenport runs and Moson's pick-six) and 2 Freebury field goals. - Worth watching: South Alabama got 7 of its points from its defense, so the offense did not carry this one alone. Davenport's legs were the steady part, with 57 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.

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How the game played out

Louisiana ran for 312 yards on 44 carries. Garner had 136 of them on 10 carries, and Lunch Winfield added 97 on 19 carries with a rushing touchdown. Winfield completed 10 of 14 passes for 147 yards. South Alabama's two-point try after Davenport's 45-yard run failed, which left the gap at 5 before the field goal. Louisiana's next drive ended without points on a field goal try that did not go through, and South Alabama's last possession ended in an interception. Louisiana converted 8 of 13 third downs.

Trends to watch

  • Davenport as a runner: 11 carries for 57 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 210 passing yards on 22 attempts.
  • Brendan Jenkins' role: 6 catches for 101 yards, the most receiving yards on either team.
  • Louisiana's run game: 7.1 yards per carry against South Alabama.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn how a point spread and an alt line work, or check the CFB hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

Player hit rates from this game

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