UMass vs. Sacramento St Recap: Watson and a Pick-Six Pull Away

UMass beat Sacramento State 35-6, and the game was over by the middle of the third quarter. William Watson III ran for touchdowns of 13 and 32 yards and threw a 7-yard score to Max Dowling, and UMass led 21-6 at halftime. On Sac State's first drive of the second half, Timmy Hinspeter returned an interception 49 yards for a touchdown. Kezion Dia-Johnson added a 3-yard run to make it 35-6 late in the third, and neither team scored again. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Sacramento State team total Under 27.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Sac State had scored 17, 3 and 10 in its losses and had been outscored 81-13 in first halves against FBS teams. UMass was allowing 2.1 yards per carry with 8 takeaways. The 48.5 total with UMass -4.5 implied about 22 for Sac State, so 27.5 gave us room.
• What happened: Sac State scored 6 points on two Grant Meadors field goals, 21.5 under the line. It wasn't for lack of yards: Sac State gained 323, nearly as many as UMass. But it lost two fumbles and threw an interception, came up empty on a field goal try before halftime and turned it over on downs in the third quarter.
• Worth watching: The takeaway part of our read showed up with three turnovers. The yardage is a reminder that this offense can move the ball, so the cushion matters more than a tighter number.

UMass ML (-192 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: UMass was 3-0 and had scored 36 or more in every game, including a 37-21 win at Rutgers. It was allowing 67 rushing yards a game and 22% on third down. Sac State was 1-3.
• What happened: UMass won by 29. It ran for 232 yards on 37 carries, and Watson had 72 of them on just 7 carries. UMass didn't turn the ball over. Sac State ran for 102 yards on 34 carries, more than UMass usually allows, but it didn't matter.
• Worth watching: The read was built on UMass's scoring and its defense. It scored 35, and the defense gave up only 6 points. That profile is worth backing again.

ALT: UMass -1.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: UMass had scored 36+ in every game, including 37 at Rutgers, and Sac State had scored 3 and 10 in its last two games.
• What happened: UMass won by 29, covering -1.5 by 27.5 points. It never trailed; its first drive went 75 yards for a touchdown.
• Worth watching: At the price we targeted, -1.5 pays about what the -192 ML paid and asks for one more point. When the main spread is this short, compare the two prices before picking one.

How the game played out

Jackson Sharman completed 24 of 43 passes for 221 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Raiden Brown led Sac State with 6 catches for 61 yards. Sac State's longest drive of the night went 16 plays and 76 yards and ended in a 20-yard field goal. It was also flagged 9 times for 85 yards.

Trends to watch

• UMass ran for 232 yards, and Watson averaged 10.3 yards a carry with two rushing touchdowns. His rushing props are worth checking next week.
• Sac State moved the ball but kept stalling out with turnovers, an empty field goal try and a failed fourth down. Team total unders against offenses like that are worth a look.
• The UMass defense has now forced three more turnovers on top of the 8 it came in with. That keeps opponent team total unders on the radar.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the moneyline, the alt line and our college football hub.