DARIMARKET
NBA · Game recap · Sat, Oct 31

Thunder vs. Rockets Recap: Jabari Smith Jr. Leads a Houston Rout

Final · Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
Rockets 119, Thunder 98
Board plays on this game
7 of 14 hit. We post the misses too.

The Rockets beat the Thunder 119-98 in Houston. Houston won the first quarter 35-26, led 62-51 at the half and stretched it to 92-75 after three, with a largest lead of 27. The Rockets made 18 of 41 threes and had 29 assists on 41 field goals, while Oklahoma City shot 10 of 32 from deep. Seven DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, and three of them ran through Jabari Smith Jr.

What cashed

Rockets moneyline (-146 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Houston had won 8 of its last 10, and the -155 price implied 61%. - What happened: The Rockets won by 21 and led for 93 percent of the game. - Worth watching: A home favorite at a fair price is worth a look when its recent form backs it up.

Rockets over 111.5 points (-104 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Houston had cleared 111.5 in 9 of its last 10, with a 218.5 game total and the Rockets favored at home. - What happened: Houston scored 119, 7.5 over. They had 92 through three quarters. - Worth watching: Team totals near even money are a cleaner way to back an offense than the full game total.

ALT: Over 214.5 total points (-170 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: This alt sat a few points under the main total, and these teams' games had gone over 214.5 in 17 of the last 20. - What happened: The teams combined for 217, 2.5 over. Houston carried most of the load with 119 of those points. - Worth watching: This one was close. Buying points off the main total gave the cushion it needed.

ALT: Jabari Smith Jr. 23+ points + rebounds + assists (-125 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Smith had cleared 23+ PRA in 7 of his last 10, priced at about 56% implied. - What happened: He put up 30 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists for 44 PRA, 21.5 over the line. He shot 10 of 18 and was plus-33. - Worth watching: He played 33 minutes and took 18 shots, so his combo lines are worth checking again.

These plays were on the board before kickoff.Join the board free →

Jabari Smith Jr. 21+ points + rebounds (-122 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Smith had cleared 21+ points and rebounds in 7 of his last 10, priced near 55% implied. - What happened: His 30 points and 9 rebounds made 39, 18.5 clear. - Worth watching: He grabbed 8 defensive rebounds, which gives this line a floor even on a cold shooting night.

ALT: Jabari Smith Jr. 2+ made threes (-189 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Smith had 2+ threes in 5 of 6 games, averaging 2.5 in 34 minutes. - What happened: He made 6 of 12 from deep, 4.5 over the line. - Worth watching: Twelve attempts gave him plenty of chances, and volume is what makes a low threes line work.

Isaiah Hartenstein under 3.5 assists (-174 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Hartenstein had stayed under 3.5 assists in 8 of his last 10 and every game this season, and we expected Houston's size to keep him focused on the glass. - What happened: He finished with 0 assists in 25 minutes, along with 10 points and 7 rebounds. - Worth watching: His minutes have sat in the mid-20s, which keeps assist unders on him in play.

How the game played out

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led Oklahoma City with 26 points on 10 of 20 shooting. Marcus Smart gave Houston 24 points, all of his field goals coming from three on 7 of 10. Alperen Sengun added 16 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists, and the Thunder's largest lead of the night was 4.

Trends to watch

  • Smith took 12 threes and played 33 minutes. When he gets that volume, his points, PRA and threes lines all move together.
  • Houston had 29 assists and only 10 turnovers on the way to 119. Watch whether that efficiency holds before backing the team total again.
  • Hartenstein played 25 minutes with no assists. His role on this night stayed on the glass.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on these markets, see the moneyline and total glossary pages, or visit the NBA hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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