Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Recap: Avdija's 28 Fuels a Portland Rally

The Trail Blazers beat the Nuggets 118-110 on Monday night. Denver won the first quarter 31-19 and led by as many as 14, then took a 66-58 lead into the half. Portland cut it to 87-85 after three and won the fourth quarter 33-23. The Blazers controlled the glass 53-37, with 21 offensive rebounds. Eight DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, including three on Deni Avdija.

What cashed

ALT: Trail Blazers +5.5 (-130 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Portland had covered +5.5 in 8 of its last 10, and 4 of 5 this season, even without Ja Morant and Shaedon Sharpe, who were both out. Denver was -5.5 at +106. - What happened: Portland won outright by 8, so the alt spread cleared by 13.5. - Worth watching: The Blazers kept covering short-handed. Getting points with a team that crashes the offensive glass is an angle worth tracking.

ALT: Trail Blazers over 109.5 points (-196 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Portland's main team total was 113.5, and the Blazers had scored 110+ in 8 of their last 10. - What happened: They scored 118, clearing by 8.5. They had 30 assists and 54 points in the paint. - Worth watching: Even after a 19-point first quarter, the Blazers got there. Their 21 offensive rebounds gave them extra possessions.

Deni Avdija 23+ points (-118 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Avdija had 23+ points in 9 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20. The -118 price implied about 54% against a recent rate near 76%. - What happened: He led Portland with 28 points on 10-of-22 shooting and 6-of-9 at the line in 35 minutes. That cleared by 5.5. - Worth watching: He got there while going 2-of-9 from three. Twenty-two shots is a heavy usage load.

Deni Avdija 30+ points + assists (-106 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: He had 30+ points plus assists in 8 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20, about 69% against 51% implied. - What happened: His 28 points and 5 assists made 33, clearing by 3.5. - Worth watching: The near-even price was the appeal here. His assists add a few points of cushion to the scoring.

ALT: Deni Avdija 30+ points + rebounds + assists (-372 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Avdija had cleared 30+ PRA in all 5 games this season, averaging 35.6. - What happened: He finished with 28 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists for 36, clearing by 6.5. - Worth watching: The streak held, but the price is steep. It fits better as a parlay leg than a straight bet.

ALT: Toumani Camara 3+ made threes (-104 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Camara had hit 3+ threes in 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20. The -104 price implied about 51% against a recent rate near 72%. - What happened: He made 3-of-7 from deep in 31 minutes, clearing by 0.5. - Worth watching: Seven attempts in 31 minutes is steady volume. That is what keeps a 2.5 line in range.

ALT: Robert Williams III 6+ rebounds (-186 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Williams had 6+ rebounds in 9 of his last 10 and 17 of his last 20, about 83% against 65% implied. - What happened: He grabbed 6 rebounds, 3 of them offensive, in just 15 minutes. It cleared by 0.5. - Worth watching: His rebounding rate is strong, but 15 minutes leaves almost no margin. Check his minutes before playing it again.

Christian Braun 15+ points + rebounds + assists (-349 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Braun had 15+ PRA in 9 of his last 10 and 4 of 5 this season. - What happened: He had 14 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists for 20 in 37 minutes. That cleared by 5.5. - Worth watching: Thirty-seven minutes is a big role. It keeps a low PRA line safe even when his shot volume is light, as it was here at 4-of-7.

How the game played out

Jamal Murray scored 35 for Denver and went 11-of-11 at the line, while Nikola Jokic had 26 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists. Donovan Clingan finished with 17 points and 18 rebounds, and Jrue Holiday added 17 points and 10 assists. Damian Lillard chipped in 20.

Trends to watch

• Avdija took 22 shots in 35 minutes. That usage supports his scoring and combo lines with Morant and Sharpe out.
• Portland grabbed 21 offensive rebounds, and Clingan had 9 of them. His rebound lines are worth a look.
• Braun played 37 minutes, his team's second-most after Murray's 39. Big minutes help low combo lines.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. See our guides on point spreads and alt lines, or visit the NBA hub.