Chargers vs. Bills Recap: Buffalo Survives Five Turnovers

Buffalo beat the Chargers 24-16, and it won despite giving the ball away five times. The Bills fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter after a fumble on their first snap and a Josh Allen interception, then tied it 10-10 on an Allen 1-yard run with 16 seconds left in the half. Los Angeles led 13-10 into the fourth. Early in the quarter, C.J. Gardner-Johnson picked off Justin Herbert at the Buffalo 1 and returned it 41 yards. Buffalo then scored the next two touchdowns, an Allen 1-yard run and a James Cook 3-yard run, before a late Chargers field goal. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Bills ML (-360 at bet365): CASHED

• Our read: Called by Darius: the Chargers were 0-2 with 28 total points, had lost both tight ends who drew 22.5% of their targets, and were patching the offensive line. Buffalo had Allen at home.
• What happened: Buffalo won by 8. The turnovers were 5 to 1 against the Bills, and they still won because the Chargers went 1-for-4 in the red zone and came away empty on a field goal try. Buffalo ran 33 times for 176 yards and sacked Herbert twice.
• Worth watching: At -360 this is a parlay piece, not a single bet. A team that wins with five giveaways shows the gap we priced was real.

ALT: Bills -3.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: The main line was -7.5, and Buffalo's defense had been leaking points, so we took four points of cushion instead of laying the full number.
• What happened: Buffalo won by 8, covering -3.5 by 4.5 points. The main -7.5 covered by half a point after Cameron Dicker's field goal with 1:56 left. Down 13-10 early in the fourth, both lines were losing.
• Worth watching: The turnovers kept this close for three quarters. The extra points are what let us sit through that without sweating the hook at the end.

James Cook anytime TD: CASHED

• Our read: Buffalo was 2-0 and a 7-point home favorite against an 0-2 team, and Cook is the goal-line back in a game with a 50.5 total.
• What happened: Cook scored from 3 yards out with 3:13 left to make it 24-13. He finished with 24 carries for 154 yards, a 6.4 average and a long of 23. On the go-ahead drive he ran for 11, 11 and 4 on three straight carries to set up Allen's 1-yard score. On the next drive, his 23-yard run set up his own touchdown.
• Worth watching: The workload is not in question. The risk is Allen: both of Allen's touchdowns were 1-yard runs, and Cook's anytime price needs to account for that.

How the game played out

Herbert threw for 226 yards on 20 of 34 passing, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Tre' Harris led the Chargers with 6 catches for 76 yards. Genesis Smith had two interceptions, and one set up a first-quarter field goal. The Chargers turned five takeaways into 10 points. Down 17-13, their next drive ended on downs at their own 45.

Trends to watch

• Cook had 24 carries for 154 yards. His rushing yards line is worth a look every week, and it doesn't compete with Allen the way his touchdown prop does.
• Allen scored twice from the 1. When we look at a Buffalo anytime TD, we'll price Cook with that in mind and check Allen's own touchdown line.
• The Chargers went 1-for-4 in the red zone and scored 10 points off five turnovers. Their team total under is worth a look before their next game.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, the hook and the anytime touchdown, or see more at NFL.