Chiefs vs. Dolphins Recap: Walker Scores Twice, Kelce Seals It Late

Kansas City beat Miami 24-10, but the game was closer than the final. Kenneth Walker scored on the Chiefs' first and third drives, and Miami answered in between with a 17-play, 91-yard touchdown drive that took 9:27. It was 14-7 at the half and 14-10 after a Miami field goal in the third. Harrison Butker's 34-yard field goal made it 17-10 early in the fourth, and Travis Kelce's 11-yard touchdown with 2:55 left put it away. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Chiefs ML (-620 at FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Miami started Malik Willis, was without WR Caleb Douglas and had RB Jaylen Wright doubtful. Kansas City was healthy apart from OT Josh Simmons, and the line had moved toward the Chiefs.
• What happened: Kansas City won by 14. Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns. Miami held the ball for 34:21 and finished with 329 yards to the Chiefs' 334, but went 1-for-2 in the red zone and turned it over twice.
• Worth watching: At -620 this is only a parlay leg. The roster gap showed up where it counts: Mahomes was efficient, and Willis threw 36 times without a touchdown.

ALT: Chiefs -6.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Called by Darius: Kansas City was the biggest favorite of the week at -11.5 with the ML at -750, so the alt was the value version. Miami was 0-2 and had just lost 35-13 at San Francisco.
• What happened: Kansas City won by 14, covering -6.5 by 7.5. For most of the second half it wasn't that comfortable: at 14-10 the alt was losing, and at 17-10 it was covering by half a point. The late Kelce touchdown settled it.
• Worth watching: A ball-control underdog can shorten the game, and Miami's 17-play drive did exactly that. That is why we take the cushion instead of laying double digits.

Kenneth Walker anytime TD: CASHED

• Our read: Walker leads the NFL in rushing and is the lead back for a road favorite facing a backup QB, so Kansas City should control the game.
• What happened: He scored twice: a 10-yard run on the opening drive and a 5-yard catch from Mahomes early in the second quarter.
• Worth watching: He scored once on the ground and once through the air. That gives him two ways to cash.

ALT: Kenneth Walker 70+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: A double-digit favorite with a positive game script, against a Miami front that has to respect Mahomes. The DraftKings main line was 89.5.
• What happened: 18 carries for exactly 70 yards, clearing 69.5 by half a yard. He was at 79 after a 15-yard run early in the fourth, then lost 6, 2 and 1 on his last three carries. His long was 22.
• Worth watching: We got paid, but it was close. Kansas City ran just 25 times while Miami held the ball for more than half the game. Against an opponent that can control the clock, a 60+ rung is the safer look.

How the game played out

Willis completed 20 of 36 passes, good for 210 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception, and he ran 9 times for 56 yards. Ollie Gordon II had 17 carries for 41 yards and Miami's only touchdown. Miami went 8-for-16 on third down but was stopped on downs twice. In the second quarter, Chris Bell's 44-yard catch started a drive that ended with a Willis fumble in Kansas City territory. George Karlaftis picked off Willis late in the fourth.

Trends to watch

• Walker's rushing total swings on a few carries. He lost 9 yards on his last three. We'll shade his alt lines lower when the opponent runs a lot and holds the ball.
• Walker scored once as a receiver. His anytime TD has more ways in than a pure goal-line back's, so it stays worth a look when Kansas City is favored.
• Miami kept this within a touchdown until 2:55 left, even as a double-digit underdog. The alt spread was the right way to play the Chiefs.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, the moneyline and the point spread, or see more at NFL.