Chiefs vs. Raiders Recap: Walker's 177 Yards and Two TDs Cash

Chiefs 30, Raiders 27. Las Vegas led 13-10 at the half, owned the ball for 35:42 and out-gained Kansas City 437 yards to 399, but two turnovers and a pair of late Kenneth Walker III touchdowns decided it. The Chiefs trailed 19-17 with 4:53 left, then scored twice within 19 seconds. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all of them pregame, and one of them was a long shot that landed.

What cashed

Chiefs ML (-225 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: We liked Kansas City as a 4.5-point road favorite behind a Walker run game that had topped 70 yards in every logged week, with Las Vegas missing guard Jackson Powers-Johnson. - What happened: The Chiefs won 30-27 with zero turnovers against two for the Raiders. Kansas City was 3-4 in the red zone while Las Vegas was 0-2. A late Las Vegas fumble set up the 22-yard Walker score that put KC up 30-19, and the Raiders' final drive ended in an interception. - Worth watching: A favorite that runs the ball and protects it can win without winning the yardage battle. Price matters, though, and -225 leaves little room for a game this close.

ALT: Kenneth Walker III 65+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Walker had 173, 117 and 70 rushing yards in his three logged games on 18-24 carries. The DraftKings main line was 86.5 on 18.5 carries, so 65 gave us 21 yards of cushion with KC favored. - What happened: Walker carried 22 times for 177 yards and 2 TD, with a long of 76. That cleared the 64.5 line by 112.5 yards. He averaged 8.0 per carry and accounted for 177 of the Chiefs' 189 team rushing yards. - Worth watching: Workhorse backs on favorites are a good place to take a discounted alt. The cushion did its job here, and the carry count (22 of KC's 26 rushes) shows how much of the plan ran through him.

Kenneth Walker III anytime TD (-155 at Fanatics): CASHED - Our read: His rushing line was 88.5, the workhorse number for a Chiefs team favored by 4.5, and he was the top-rated touchdown prop on this game in the model data we checked. At 61 confidence this was our long shot of the four. - What happened: Walker scored twice, both in the fourth quarter: a 2-yard run at 3:21 and a 22-yard run at 3:02, 19 seconds apart. The second came on a one-play drive after the Las Vegas fumble. He also caught 1 pass for 2 yards. - Worth watching: Anytime TD props on a lead back are worth a look when the team is favored, but the price still has to make sense, and a touchdown that comes in the final minutes shows how thin that margin can be.

ALT: Patrick Mahomes 205+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Mahomes was confirmed to start and BetMGM had his main line at 234.5. He had cleared 234.5 in 13 of 15 career AFC West games, and Las Vegas was missing Powers-Johnson. We took the 205 alt below that main line. - What happened: Mahomes threw for 225 yards on 15/30 passing, with 2 TD and no interceptions, clearing the 204.5 line by 20.5 yards. He was sacked twice for 15 yards. Both touchdown passes went to Tyquan Thornton, from 2 and 8 yards. - Worth watching: The cushion mattered. 225 sits below the 234.5 main line but well above our alt number. When the run game is working, passing volume can run light, so a lower alt is a sensible way to take the QB angle.

How the game played out

Las Vegas moved the ball through the air. Kirk Cousins threw 52 times for 365 yards, 2 TD and 1 interception, and the Raiders had 19 passing first downs. Matt Gay kicked four field goals. But the Raiders rushed 26 times for just 72 yards, were 0-2 in the red zone and gave the ball away twice. Brock Bowers caught a 20-yard touchdown and Las Vegas converted the two-point try to make it 30-27 with 1:46 left, but the Raiders' last drive ended in an interception.

Trends to watch

• Walker's workload: 22 of Kansas City's 26 rushing attempts went to him. The Chiefs trailed 13-10 at the half and 19-17 late, and he still got the volume.
• Run-heavy plan, modest pass total: KC had 26 rushing attempts against 30 Mahomes attempts, and he finished at 225. When a team leans on its back, a lower passing alt can be the safer way in.
• Las Vegas through the air: Cousins' 52 attempts and 365 yards show how much Las Vegas threw in this game. Their pass catchers are worth a look if that volume repeats.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on how we use alt lines and anytime touchdown props, plus our NFL hub.