Colts vs. Vikings Recap: Reichard's 52-Yarder Seals a 16-10 Win

The Vikings beat the Colts 16-10 on Sunday. Indianapolis led 7-0 on a 38-yard Jonathan Taylor touchdown run and 10-6 at the half, but Minnesota took the lead early in the fourth quarter on a 5-yard Kyler Murray touchdown pass to T.J. Hockenson with 14:36 left, then iced it on a 52-yard Will Reichard field goal with 1:39 to go. Reichard kicked three field goals in all. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, including both sides of the spread ladder.

What cashed

ALT: Vikings -3.5 (-176 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Minnesota had won by 4 or more in 7 straight and 9 of its last 10, with an average margin of +11.3. The main line was Vikings -6.5, and Colts tight end Tyler Warren was out.
• What happened: The Vikings won by six, 2.5 points clear of the alt number. The late Reichard field goal moved the lead from three to six.
• Worth watching: Buying down from -6.5 to -3.5 is what made this one. In a low-scoring game, the half-point around a field goal margin matters.

ALT: Colts +13.5 (-270 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: The main line was Colts +6.5, and Indianapolis had covered +13.5 in each of its last 5 games and 8 of its last 10.
• What happened: A six-point loss covered by 7.5. The Colts' defense held Minnesota to 275 total yards and 3 of 11 on third down.
• Worth watching: A deep alt on a team that keeps games close is a steady leg, but the price is steep. It works best as a piece of a larger ticket, not on its own.

T.J. Hockenson under 4.5 receptions (-140 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Hockenson had stayed at 4 catches or fewer in 4 of 5 games this season and 8 of his last 10.
• What happened: He finished with exactly 4 catches for 35 yards, including the go-ahead touchdown, so the under held by half a catch.
• Worth watching: Minnesota threw only 24 passes, and Justin Jefferson led the team with 7 targets. Low passing volume is the setup that keeps Hockenson's catch count down.

ALT: Jonathan Taylor 2+ receptions (-290 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Taylor had cleared 2 catches in 9 of his last 10 games and 18 of his last 20, and -290 implied about 74% against roughly 85% from those games.
• What happened: He caught 2 of his 3 targets for 15 yards, right on the number. He also ran 18 times for 95 yards and the Colts' only touchdown.
• Worth watching: Taylor's role carried the Indy offense here. His rushing workload is the bigger story for his next set of lines.

How the game played out

The Colts outrushed Minnesota 154 to 136 and won time of possession 31:50 to 28:10, but they gave up 4 sacks for 44 yards and went 0 of 1 in the red zone. Spencer Shrader added a 43-yard field goal as the first half ended. Jordan Mason led the Vikings with 15 carries for 68 yards.

Trends to watch

• Taylor and Seth McGowan combined for 29 carries. Indianapolis leaned on the run, which supports Taylor's rushing lines more than his receiving ones.
• Murray added 39 rushing yards on 5 carries, with a long of 35. His legs are part of Minnesota's offense, and his rushing line is one to check.
• Reichard made field goals from 28, 47 and 52 yards. In a tight, low-scoring game, kicking points props on him are worth a look.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. See our guides on the point spread and alt lines, or the full board on /nfl.