DARIMARKET
NFL · Game recap · Sun, Oct 4

Rams vs. Eagles Recap: Late Rally Wins It, Nacua Goes for 125

Final · Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Rams 24, Eagles 20
Board plays on this game
3 of 3 hit.

The Rams beat the Eagles 24-20 after trailing 20-10 at halftime. Philadelphia scored all 20 of its points in the first half, the last of them on a Darius Cooper touchdown catch with 3 seconds left before the break. They did not score again. They finished with 172 total yards, 68 net passing yards, and they converted none of their 12 third downs. Los Angeles took the lead with two Kyren Williams touchdown runs inside the final 3:59. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Rams ML (-198 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Philadelphia was without DeVonta Smith, Hollywood Brown, Zack Baun and Fred Johnson. The market had already dropped Hurts' passing line from 202.5 to 187.5 and his TD line to 0.5. We took the Rams to win straight up. - What happened: The Rams won by 4. They outgained the Eagles 415 to 172 and held the ball for 32:00. Two late drives decided it: 98 yards in 10 plays, capped by a Williams 1-yard run with 3:59 left, then 79 yards in 10 plays, ending in his 7-yard score with 1:10 to go. - Worth watching: The Rams won this with two interceptions and a 3-5 red zone day. The edge came from Philadelphia's thin passing game, so when a side rests on who is inactive, we want to confirm the list before betting it.

Eagles team total Under 23.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: With Smith, Brown and Dallas Goedert all inactive, Hurts (185.5 passing yards at DraftKings) was working with Dontayvion Wicks and rookies. A 42.5 game total with the Rams -3.5 put Philadelphia around 19.5, so we took the alt under 23.5. - What happened: The Eagles scored 20, 3.5 under the line. Hurts completed 12 of 27 passes for 93 yards with two touchdown passes to Cooper (18 and 10 yards) and took four sacks. Both Eagles touchdowns came on drives of just 17 and 35 yards. They were shut out after halftime, and three of their second-half drives ended on downs. - Worth watching: Team total unders are worth a look when a team's top pass catchers are out and its passing prop falls. The Eagles needed two short touchdown drives just to reach 20, and the alt number left room for that.

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Puka Nacua 55+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: DraftKings had Nacua at 74.5 yards on 6.5 catches. With Baun out and the Eagles short at receiver and tight end, we expected Philadelphia to struggle to keep pace and the Rams to keep throwing. - What happened: Nacua caught 9 of 12 targets for 125 yards, 70.5 over the line, with a long of 32. He also scored on a 2-yard run with 1:55 left in the first half. - Worth watching: Volume did the work. Matthew Stafford threw 51 passes and Nacua drew 12 targets. When the game script points to a heavy passing day, an alt yardage line well under the main number is a cleaner way to play it.

How the game played out

Philadelphia scored on the drive after each of the Rams' two first-half interceptions: a field goal after the first and a 2-play, 35-yard touchdown drive after the second, which made it 20-10. Neither team scored in the third quarter. In the fourth, the Rams strung together the 98-yard and 79-yard touchdown drives while the Eagles' last three possessions ended downs, punt, downs.

Trends to watch

  • The Rams leaned on the pass. Stafford completed 32 of 51 passes for 317 yards, and Nacua, Williams (10 catches on 13 targets) and Tyler Higbee combined for 24 catches.
  • Philadelphia's passing game without its top receivers: 68 net passing yards, 4 sacks allowed and 0-12 on third down. If that group stays out, Eagles team totals and Hurts passing numbers are worth pricing carefully.
  • Williams had 16 carries for 80 yards, scored both late rushing touchdowns from 1 and 7 yards out, and added 67 receiving yards.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on alt lines, the moneyline and our NFL hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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