DARIMARKET
NFL · Game recap · Sun, Oct 11

Texans vs. Titans Recap: Houston Wins Big, Nico Collins Clears

Final · Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Texans 26, Titans 3
Board plays on this game
2 of 2 hit.

The Texans beat the Titans 26-3 on Sunday, and it was a slow squeeze for a half before it turned lopsided. Tennessee opened with a Joey Slye 30-yard field goal, then did not score again. Ka'imi Fairbairn answered with four field goals before halftime, including a 53-yarder, for a 12-3 lead. Houston put it away in the second half with a 17-play, 74-yard touchdown drive that ate 8:23 and ended on a C.J. Stroud 2-yard run, then a 9-yard Stroud pass to Jaylin Noel early in the fourth. Houston outgained Tennessee 329 to 187, held the ball for 34:39 and did not turn it over. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Texans ML (-345 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Tennessee came in 0-4 and had scored 10, 20, 7 and 18 points. Houston was also 0-4, but every loss was by 6 or fewer, and Stroud had two games of 347+ passing yards. We liked Houston to finally close one out. - What happened: Houston won by 23. Stroud completed 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards with a touchdown pass, no interceptions, and added the rushing score. The Titans' only points came on their first drive. They lost two turnovers, gave up four sacks for 40 yards, and their last two drives both ended on downs. - Worth watching: A heavy moneyline price like this only makes sense when the gap in scoring and quarterback play is clear. It was here. We would look at it again in similar spots, but the price leaves little room, so it fits better as a parlay leg than a big standalone bet.

Nico Collins 3+ receptions (alt, targeted -250 or shorter): CASHED - Our read: Collins had 3+ catches in each of his last 10 games and was off the injury report. Houston was a 6.5-point favorite, and Tennessee was without CB Jaylon Jones. - What happened: Collins caught 5 of 7 targets for 56 yards, with a long of 20. That cleared the 2.5 line by 2.5 catches. Stroud spread it around, with six Texans catching three or more passes, but Collins still led the team in targets. - Worth watching: A low catch count on a top receiver is a floor bet, and seven targets in a game where Stroud threw only 34 times is a healthy floor. The alt price is the catch, so check how short it is before you add it.

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How the game played out

Houston was not sharp in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 2 of 4 trips, and drew 11 penalties for 95 yards. It did not matter, because Tennessee ran for 57 yards and Cam Ward threw for 170 yards on 36 attempts with an interception. The Titans reached the red zone once without a touchdown and did not score after the opening field goal. Their two long fourth-quarter drives, 11 and 14 plays, both ended on downs.

Trends to watch

  • Collins' target share: 7 targets, the most on the team, even with six Houston players catching three or more passes. That is the kind of usage that keeps a catch floor steady.
  • Fairbairn's leg: Fairbairn made four field goals from 26 to 53 yards, all before halftime. When Houston moves the ball but bogs down, his kicking points prop is worth a look.
  • Tennessee's offense: 187 total yards and four sacks allowed. Until that changes, opponents of the Titans stay on our radar for moneyline and defense-friendly angles.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the moneyline, alt lines, or see more on the NFL hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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