Avalanche vs. Jets Recap: Connor's Late Winner Gets the Over Home

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 on Wednesday night, and the winner came with one minute left in regulation. Kyle Connor scored at 19:00 of the 3rd period, his second goal of the night, to break a 2-2 tie. Colorado outshot Winnipeg 34-19, but Stuart Skinner stopped 32 of 34 in the Jets net. Neither power play scored: Colorado was 0-for-1 and Winnipeg 0-for-2, so all 5 goals came at even strength. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 4.5 total goals (alt): CASHED - Our read: DraftKings had the main total at 6.5, so this alt line only needed 5 goals. Winnipeg was without Connor Hellebuyck and was expected to start Stuart Skinner. - What happened: Exactly 5 goals, half a goal over the line. The game had 3 goals through two periods. Fedor Svechkov tied it 2-2 with a tip-in at 12:35 of the 3rd, and Connor's wrist shot at 19:00 was the fifth goal. - Worth watching: Skinner did start, and the main number was right to expect goals, but this one needed the last minute of regulation. An alt over that sits two goals under the main total is still a reasonable angle when the price fits.

Devon Toews under 0.5 points (-175 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Toews went without a point in 71% of his 68 games last season, and he plays on the second power-play unit, not the first. - What happened: Toews finished with 0 goals, 0 assists and 2 shots on goal in 21:28 of ice time. He logged only 0:27 on the power play. Colorado's 2 goals came from Jaden Schwartz and Svechkov, with Brent Burns, Svechkov, Schwartz and Brett Kulak picking up the assists. - Worth watching: Big minutes with very little power-play time is the profile that makes a defenseman's points under worth a look. At -175 the price is steep, so the role has to stay the same before we go back to it.

How the game played out

After a scoreless 1st, the 2nd period had three goals. Schwartz put Colorado ahead at 2:51, Connor tipped in the tying goal at 4:01, and Cole Perfetti gave Winnipeg a 2-1 lead at 18:16. Svechkov answered in the 3rd before Connor won it.

Trends to watch

• Colorado had 34 shots on goal to Winnipeg's 19 and still lost. Skinner turned shot volume away all night, which matters for anyone reading shot totals into goal totals.
• The teams combined for 3 power-play chances and no power-play goals. With few penalties, this game was decided entirely at even strength.
• Mark Scheifele and Dylan Samberg each had 2 assists for Winnipeg, and Connor finished with 2 goals.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More: the NHL hub, all NHL recaps, and what an alt line is.