Islanders vs. Predators Recap: Shootout Win, Over 4.5 Cashes

Islanders 4, Predators 3 in a shootout. New York built a 3-0 lead on goals from Anthony Duclair and Brayden Schenn in the 1st and Bo Horvat 1:08 into the 2nd. Nashville answered with three straight: Filip Forsberg on the power play at 9:42 of the 2nd, Alexander Kerfoot at 13:02 and Ryan O'Reilly 4:16 into the 3rd to tie it 3-3. Overtime settled nothing, and the Islanders won the shootout. New York outshot Nashville 28-23. Semyon Varlamov made 20 saves on 23 shots; Juuse Saros made 25 saves on 28. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Steven Stamkos 1+ points (-160 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Stamkos came in with a point in 9 of 11 games this season and 8 of his last 10, including 6 points over his last 4. The Islanders were also without Barzal, Romanov and Ritchie. - What happened: He picked up an assist on Forsberg's power-play goal at 9:42 of the 2nd, the goal that started the comeback. He finished with 0 G, 1 A and 1 shot on goal in 20:42, with 5:26 on the power play. One point cleared the 0.5 line by 0.5. - Worth watching: The point came on the power play, and his 5:26 of power-play time is what keeps this prop live on nights his shot volume is low.

Ryan O'Reilly 1+ points (-165 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: O'Reilly had a point in 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20, and the Islanders' defense was thin with Romanov on IR. - What happened: He scored the tying goal on a backhand 4:16 into the 3rd, set up by Daemon Hunt and Forsberg. He finished with 1 G, 1 shot on goal and 3 blocks in 24:10, including 4:43 on the power play. Margin: 0.5 over the line. - Worth watching: He played 24:10 with power-play time on top. Minutes like that keep his point props worth a look.

Bo Horvat 1+ points (-145 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Horvat had a point in 8 of 10 games this season and was logging 19-24 minutes a night as the top center with Barzal on IR. - What happened: His snap shot 1:08 into the 2nd made it 3-0, with assists from Matthew Schaefer and Simon Holmstrom. He finished with 1 G, 2 shots on goal and 26:04 of ice time, 6:18 of it on the power play. Margin: 0.5 over the line. - Worth watching: 26:04 ran above the 19-24 range in our read. While he is the top center, that workload keeps the 1+ points line in play.

ALT: Over 4.5 total goals (-370 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: The main total was 5.5. Nashville games and Islanders games had each gone over 4.5 in 9 of their last 10, with Varlamov confirmed for New York and Saros projected for Nashville. - What happened: The teams scored six goals through regulation and overtime, which already cleared 4.5. Under the board's grading rule the shootout winner is credited with one more, so it graded at 7 total goals, 2.5 over the line. - Worth watching: At -370 the price is steep, so this angle fits better as a small play or a parlay leg than a big straight bet.

How the game played out

The swing came in the 2nd. Nashville's power-play goal at 9:42 cut it to 3-1, and Kerfoot made it 3-2 at 13:02. O'Reilly's goal early in the 3rd tied it, and the Islanders took the shootout. New York had five power plays and did not score on any of them, while Nashville scored once on five chances.

Trends to watch

• Horvat's role: 26:04 of ice time and 6:18 on the power play with Barzal out.
• Special teams: the Islanders were blanked on five power plays. Nashville's only power-play goal ran through Forsberg, Marchessault and Stamkos.
• Shot volume was modest at 28 and 23, yet both goalies allowed three goals. Totals in this matchup rode on save percentage more than volume.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More: the NHL board, all NHL recaps and what an alt line is.