DARIMARKET
NHL · Game recap · Tue, Sep 29

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Recap: Four Plays Cash in a 3-2 Game

Final · Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
Canadiens 3, Maple Leafs 2
Board plays on this game
4 of 4 hit.

The Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 3-2. Toronto struck first when William Nylander scored 0:48 into the game, but Montreal answered with the next three goals. Josh Anderson tied it at 10:53 of the 1st, Zachary Bolduc put Montreal ahead at 4:52 of the 2nd, and Alexandre Carrier scored unassisted at 13:12 of the 3rd for a 3-1 lead. Nylander got his second of the night at 15:46 of the 3rd, but Toronto got no closer. Toronto outshot Montreal 28-24, and Jakub Dobes made 26 saves on 28 shots. Neither power play scored. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 4.5 total goals (alt): CASHED - Our read: Toronto allowed 3.60 goals a game last season, Sergei Bobrovsky posted .877, and Montreal's penalty kill was 78.2%. Last season's four meetings averaged 5.25 goals. - What happened: 5 total goals, half a goal over the line. It went down to the wire: Nylander's goal at 15:46 of the 3rd was the fifth goal and cashed it. - Worth watching: Bobrovsky made 21 saves on 24 shots (.875). If that save rate holds, overs on Toronto games stay live even at modest shot totals.

Cole Caufield 3+ shots on goal (-185 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: He scored 51 goals on 3.19 shots a game last season, and Toronto gave up 32.4 shots a game while breaking in a new coach and a rebuilt roster. - What happened: Exactly 3 shots on goal in 15:55 of ice time, with 2:23 on the power play. No points, but the volume was there on a night Montreal put only 24 shots on net as a team. - Worth watching: He gets his shots even when the team total is low. The ice time is the number to watch: 15:55 is on the light side for a top shooter.

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Canadiens over 2.5 team total goals (-180 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Montreal scored 3.40 a game last season behind Suzuki (101 points) and Caufield (51 goals), and Toronto allowed 3.60 a game. - What happened: Montreal scored 3, all at even strength. Carrier's unassisted wrist shot at 13:12 of the 3rd was the third goal and cleared the line by half a goal. - Worth watching: Montreal scored 3 without a power-play goal on its two chances. When the power play does connect, this number gets easier.

Kirill Marchenko 1+ points (-110 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: He had a point in 67% of his games last season (0.88 a game) and was projected on Toronto's top line with Auston Matthews for the opener. Montreal allowed 3.06 goals a game last season. - What happened: A longer shot that landed early. Marchenko picked up the second assist on Nylander's goal 0:48 into the game. He added 4 shots on goal in 20:08 of ice time, with 3:25 on the power play. - Worth watching: 20:08 of ice time and power-play minutes are the kind of role that keeps a near-even-money point prop in play. Watch where he lines up next game.

How the game played out

Montreal won the middle of the game. After Nylander's early goal, the Canadiens scored three straight, and Toronto did not score again until 15:46 of the 3rd. Montreal won 60.4% of faceoffs and outhit Toronto 28-23.

Trends to watch

  • Dobes: 26 saves on 28 shots (.929) in the opener.
  • Special teams: no power-play goals on either side. Montreal had two chances and Toronto had three.
  • Toronto's new top line: Marchenko logged 20:08 with 4 shots on goal.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More at /nhl and NHL recaps, plus our guide to the alt line.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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