Islanders vs. Rangers Recap: Alt Under and Varlamov Saves Under Cash

The Rangers beat the Islanders 5-2 in regulation. The Rangers scored at 6:40 of the 1st and again 25 seconds into the 2nd. The Islanders answered fast: Bo Horvat scored on the power play at 2:56 of the 2nd and Calum Ritchie tied it at 4:52. Oliver Bjorkstrand broke the tie with a power-play goal at 17:07 of the 2nd, and the Rangers added two empty-net goals at 18:22 and 18:54 of the 3rd. The Rangers outshot the Islanders 24-19. Semyon Varlamov made 19 saves on 22 shots, and Igor Shesterkin stopped 17 of 19. Each team scored once on the power play. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Under 7.5 total goals (alt): CASHED - Our read: We leaned on the goalies: Ilya Sorokin had a .968 save percentage and Shesterkin .934, and the main total sat at just 5.5. An alt under 7.5 gave us two full goals of room over the main number. - What happened: The game finished with 7 total goals, 0.5 under the line. It was 3-2 through 40 minutes, and the only goals of the 3rd were two empty-netters in the last two minutes. Shesterkin finished with 17 saves on 19 shots. - Worth watching: Two goalies with strong save numbers and a main total of 5.5 is the kind of setup where an alt under carries real cushion. Price matters on alt lines, so we only want it at -300 or better.

Semyon Varlamov under 23.5 saves (+100 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Varlamov was making his first start since Nov. 29, 2024, in place of Sorokin, and the Rangers had taken just 24, 25, 21 and 22 shots in their four games. Low shot volume points to a low save count. At 59 confidence, this was a longer shot that landed. - What happened: Varlamov made 19 saves on 22 shots with 3 goals against, a .864 save percentage in 59:26. That is 4.5 saves under the line. The Rangers had 24 shots as a team, but two of them were the empty-net goals late in the 3rd, so Varlamov only faced 22. - Worth watching: The Rangers' shot volume stayed low again, which is what this prop leans on. At +100 it was a fair price, and we would pass past -115.

How the game played out

The 2nd period was the swing. Four goals went in, two for each side, and the last of them was the Rangers' power-play goal at 17:07 that put them back in front for good. The Islanders went one for four on the power play and the Rangers one for three. From there the Rangers held on, and the two late empty-netters stretched it to 5-2 without pushing the total over 7.5.

Trends to watch

• Matthew Schaefer led the Islanders with 25:03 of ice time, including 4:50 on the power play. Horvat logged 4:29 on the power play and scored there.
• Bjorkstrand scored twice on 3 shots in only 8:58 of ice time. That is a small role for that kind of finish.
• The Rangers put 24 shots on goal, right in the range of the 24, 25, 21 and 22 they had taken in their earlier games. That keeps opposing goalie save unders on the radar.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More at NHL picks, NHL recaps and our guide to the alt line.