DARIMARKET
NHL · Game recap · Mon, Oct 5

Jets vs. Penguins Recap: Late Flurry Clears the Alt Over

Final · Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins
Jets 3, Penguins 2
Board plays on this game
3 of 7 hit. We post the misses too.

The Jets beat the Penguins 3-2 in regulation. After a scoreless first period, Ben Kindel tipped in the opener for Pittsburgh at 9:27 of the 2nd. The 3rd period then produced four goals in a span of 4:19. Alex Iafallo tied it at 4:43, Adam Lowry put Winnipeg ahead at 7:08, Declan Carlile answered for Pittsburgh at 8:53, and Cole Perfetti scored the winner just 9 seconds later at 9:02. Every goal came at even strength. Winnipeg outshot Pittsburgh 34-32, and neither power play scored (Winnipeg 0-for-1, Pittsburgh 0-for-2). Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 4.5 total goals (alt): CASHED - Our read: Pittsburgh had scored 13 goals in its first 2 games, including a 7-0 win and a 6-5 overtime game, and Winnipeg was on the second night of a back-to-back without Connor Hellebuyck. - What happened: 5 total goals, 0.5 over the line. It took until the 3rd period, and the fifth goal came at 9:02 of the 3rd. - Worth watching: The alt line gave two full goals of cushion under the 6.5 main total, and this game needed it. Pittsburgh has now been part of plenty of goals early this season, but we would only want the alt at the price we posted pregame.

Kyle Connor 3+ shots on goal (-200 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Connor came in with 14 shots on goal through 2 games, and Winnipeg was on a back-to-back against a Penguins team that had scored 13 goals in 2 games. - What happened: 6 shots on goal in 21:59 of ice time, including 1:26 on the power play. That is 3.5 over the 2.5 line, and he cleared it with room to spare. - Worth watching: Connor now has 20 shots on goal in 3 games. With 21:59 of ice time tonight, his volume makes 3+ shots a number worth checking every night, as long as the price stays reasonable.

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Clay Stevenson over 25.5 saves (-115 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Pittsburgh had put 38 and 30 shots on goal in its 2 games, and Winnipeg gave up 36 shots in Detroit the day before this back-to-back. - What happened: Stevenson made 30 saves on 32 shots (.938) in a full 60:00. That is 4.5 saves over the line. This one was a longer shot that landed. - Worth watching: Saves props on the second night of a back-to-back, against a team that shoots in volume, are an angle we like. The key is waiting for the starter to be confirmed first.

How the game played out

Sergei Murashov held Winnipeg off the board for two periods for Pittsburgh and finished with 31 saves on 34 shots. The game turned in under five minutes of the 3rd. Pittsburgh tied it at 2 on Carlile's goal at 8:53, and Winnipeg went back ahead 9 seconds later. Special teams barely factored, with just 3 power plays in the whole game.

Trends to watch

  • Winnipeg's shot volume: 34 shots on goal on the second night of a back-to-back, with Connor taking 6 of them.
  • Pittsburgh has now put 38, 30 and 32 shots on goal in its 3 games. Goalies facing them should expect a real workload.
  • Winnipeg blocked 14 shots and the team threw 23 hits, compared with 11 hits for Pittsburgh.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More hockey on our NHL page, past games in NHL recaps, and how alt lines work in our alt line guide.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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