DARIMARKET
NHL · Game recap · Sat, Oct 31

Lightning vs. Predators Recap: Nashville Wins Shootout, Josi Cashes

Final · Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators
Predators 5, Lightning 4
Board plays on this game
3 of 4 hit. We post the misses too.

The Nashville Predators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-4 in a shootout on Saturday afternoon. The teams finished regulation tied 4-4 after trading goals all game, overtime was scoreless, and Nashville won the shootout. Per ESPN, the 5-4 final includes 1 goal credited to the Predators for the shootout win, and no skater's stat line includes it. Nashville outshot Tampa Bay 33-26. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 29 saves on 33 shots for the Lightning, and Justus Annunen made 22 saves on 26 shots for the Predators. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Roman Josi 2+ shots on goal (-240 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Josi had 2+ shots in 9 of his last 10 games and all of his last 5, averaging 2.7 shots a game in 25 minutes a night. Heavy minutes plus steady volume made two shots a reasonable bar. - What happened: Josi put 5 shots on goal in 27:33 of ice time, including 3:05 on the power play, and added 2 blocked shots. That cleared the 1.5 line by 3.5 shots. One of his shots came in overtime, a wrist shot that Vasilevskiy turned aside. - Worth watching: He played even more than the 25 minutes we leaned on pregame. As long as he is logging that kind of ice time and power-play work, the 2+ shot line stays worth a look at a fair price.

Brandon Hagel 3+ shots on goal (-250 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Hagel came in averaging 4.6 shots per game, with 3+ in 10 of 12 games and 8 of his last 10. - What happened: Hagel finished with exactly 3 shots on goal in 20:13, with 4:15 on the power play. That cleared the 2.5 line by 0.5, so this one was tight. Tampa Bay only got 26 shots on goal as a team, which kept the volume down. - Worth watching: His 4:15 of power-play time was the most among the three players in this recap. When his team is generating more than it did here, his volume history gives the 3+ line room to work.

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Ryan O'Reilly 1+ points (-155 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: O'Reilly had 14 points in 13 games and a point in 8 of his last 10, playing 21 minutes a night. - What happened: O'Reilly picked up an assist on the power-play goal that tied the game 4-4 at 7:27 of the 3rd, a Steven Stamkos wrist shot set up by Filip Forsberg and O'Reilly. That was his only point, so the 0.5 line was cleared by 0.5. He played 18:02, with 2:25 on the power play, and did not record a shot on goal. - Worth watching: He played 18:02, below the 21 minutes we cited pregame, and still found the sheet through the power play. His spot on that unit is the part of the angle to keep an eye on.

How the game played out

Neither team led by more than one goal. Reid Schaefer opened the scoring for Nashville at 11:14 of the 1st, and John Carlson answered for Tampa Bay at 13:38. The 2nd period had four goals, with Jake Guentzel and Victor Hedman scoring for the Lightning and Adam Edstrom and Jayden Struble for the Predators. Struble's tying goal came at 19:42 of the 2nd, with 18 seconds left in the period. Conor Geekie put Tampa Bay back in front at 3:31 of the 3rd before Stamkos tied it on the power play.

Trends to watch

  • Nikita Kucherov assisted on three of the four Tampa Bay goals, all at even strength. Tampa Bay's even-strength play carried its offense.
  • Special teams tilted to Nashville. Both teams had three power plays, and the only power-play goal of the game was the Predators' tying goal in the 3rd.
  • Neither goalie had his best day: Vasilevskiy finished at .879 and Annunen at .846. With four goals allowed by each side in regulation, this matchup played to offense.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More: NHL board, all NHL recaps, and what a player prop is.

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